2025 Fantasy Football Draft Debate: Breaking Down Josh Allen vs. Lamar Jackson Quarterback ADP Battle for QB1 Supremacy
As fantasy football managers begin crafting their 2025 draft strategies, one of the biggest and most hotly debated topics revolves around the top of the quarterback rankings — namely, who should be the first quarterback off the board: Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson?
Both are fantasy superstars in their own right. Both offer dual-threat dominance, weekly ceiling-breaking potential, and year-over-year consistency that fantasy owners crave. But with their average draft positions (ADPs) hovering around the top of the second round — and occasionally sneaking into the late first in superflex or 6-point passing leagues — the choice between Allen and Jackson isn’t just preference anymore; it’s a decision that could shape an entire fantasy season.
To break this down properly, we need to look at performance trends, offseason changes, surrounding talent, offensive scheme, injury risk, and consistency — all of which factor into draft-day decisions.
Since breaking out in 2020, Josh Allen has been a consistent top-tier quarterback in fantasy football. In fact, he’s finished as the QB1 overall in three of the last four seasons. His combination of passing production, goal-line rushing work, and durability makes him arguably the safest high-ceiling pick in fantasy.
Allen’s production comes from a perfect storm of volume, play style, and his role in the Buffalo offense. The Bills don’t shy away from letting Allen run, particularly in the red zone, where he often vultures touchdowns from running backs. That’s gold in fantasy formats, where rushing TDs offer a major edge.
Even with the Bills undergoing some offensive shifts — including the departure of Stefon Diggs — Allen still has enough in his arsenal to continue producing at an elite level. Tight end Dalton Kincaid is poised for a breakout, and rookie wideout Keon Coleman offers a big-bodied red zone target. Add in Allen’s chemistry with Gabe Davis and James Cook’s development as a receiving threat, and there’s no shortage of weapons.
But the biggest advantage for Allen drafters is reliability. He rarely misses games, he scores in bunches, and he’s one of the few quarterbacks who can give you 30+ points even when he doesn’t throw for 300 yards.
When it comes to rushing upside, no quarterback has changed fantasy football more than Lamar Jackson. Since winning MVP in 2019, Jackson has been a cheat code when healthy. His legs give him the kind of weekly floor that’s nearly unmatched, and his improvement as a passer has elevated his consistency over the past two seasons.
What separates Jackson this year is not just his athleticism, but his situation. The 2024 season marked the first full year under offensive coordinator Todd Monken’s modern, balanced scheme — and the results were impressive. Jackson looked more comfortable in the pocket, distributing the ball efficiently while still scrambling and improvising when needed.
And now, with the addition of Derrick Henry in the backfield, the Ravens’ offense might be even more dangerous in 2025. Henry draws attention at the line of scrimmage and creates spacing opportunities for Jackson in the play-action game. He also helps keep defenses honest, giving Lamar more room to operate on the edge and on designed runs.
Wide receiver Zay Flowers took a massive step forward last season, and tight end Mark Andrews remains one of the league’s most reliable red-zone threats. If Rashod Bateman stays healthy and rookie Devontez Walker can contribute early, Jackson might have his deepest receiving corps yet.
Jackson’s ceiling might even be higher than Allen’s in any given week. With the potential for a 100-yard rushing game and multiple touchdowns on the ground or through the air, he’s the type of player who can win a matchup singlehandedly.
As of early July 2025, most major fantasy platforms have Josh Allen narrowly ahead of Lamar Jackson in ADP. The difference is minimal — often just a few picks — but Allen is generally going as the QB1 and Jackson as QB2.
In superflex or 2QB leagues, both players are going in the top 5-10 picks overall, making the decision even more critical. The separation in ADP likely comes down to perceived safety: Allen has been slightly more durable, and his passing volume remains a bit more stable week to week. Jackson’s slightly lower ADP could be viewed as a bargain if you believe in the continued growth of the Ravens’ offense.
Strength of Schedule
Matchups matter, especially when you’re talking about elite QBs and late-season playoff runs.
- Josh Allen’s SOS (Weeks 15–17): @Patriots, vs. Jets, @Dolphins
That’s a tough stretch. All three teams boast talented secondaries and fast pass-rushing units. New England and New York in particular have historically played Allen tough. - Lamar Jackson’s SOS (Weeks 15–17): @Browns, vs. Bengals, vs. Steelers
Not exactly a breeze either — three divisional matchups with hard-hitting defenses. However, Lamar has traditionally played well against these teams, especially when scrambling is involved.
Overall, both quarterbacks face similarly tough schedules down the stretch, which makes preparation and depth even more critical for fantasy managers.
It’s no secret that Lamar Jackson has missed multiple games in recent years, often at the worst time for fantasy managers. While he was healthy for the full 2024 campaign, there’s still some lingering concern about his playing style and long-term durability.
Josh Allen, on the other hand, plays a physically demanding style but has been far more available. He’s missed just a single game in his last five seasons. His ability to stay on the field has been a major reason he’s finished near or at the top of the fantasy QB rankings year after year.
That durability edge might be what ultimately tilts some managers toward Allen — particularly those who were burned by Jackson’s late-season absences in previous years.
Who Should You Draft in 2025?
The answer depends largely on your draft position, league format, and risk tolerance. But here are some final thoughts:
- If you want the safest elite QB pick: Josh Allen. His durability, rushing TD potential, and overall track record make him slightly more stable.
- If you want the highest possible weekly ceiling: Lamar Jackson. His rushing yardage is unmatched, and he’s entering what could be the most balanced and explosive offense of his career.
- If you’re in a best ball or tournament format: Lean Jackson. Spike weeks and blow-up potential are more valuable than weekly consistency.
- If you’re playing in a 1QB redraft league: Waiting on QB might still be the smarter play overall, but if you’re going to take one early, Jackson in the late second might offer better value if Allen goes mid-second.
- In Superflex or 2QB leagues: Either is a strong first-round selection. Allen has a higher ADP, but if Jackson falls to you a few picks later, you might end up with a higher weekly scorer.
In the end, the Allen vs. Jackson debate is one of the most exciting storylines in 2025 fantasy football drafts. Both quarterbacks offer elite-level scoring and possess rare rushing upside in a league increasingly dominated by dual-threat passers.
If you’re playing it safe, Allen is the guy. If you’re swinging for upside and willing to bet on Lamar’s continued evolution, you could walk away with the fantasy MVP.
Either way, make your decision with confidence. Because when you’re choosing between two of the most electrifying players in football, you’re not going wrong — you’re just deciding how you want to win.
