Can Texas Running Back CJ Baxter Surpass 700 Rushing Yards This Season or Fall Short in a Crowded Backfield?

As the Texas Longhorns gear up for another season with national championship aspirations and a loaded offensive roster, one question lingering in the minds of fans and analysts alike is whether sophomore running back CJ Baxter will eclipse the 700-yard rushing mark in 2025. It’s a straightforward question on paper, but in reality, it’s layered with nuance—team context, usage rate, offensive philosophy, and competition in the backfield all play critical roles. For Baxter, this isn’t just about statistical benchmarks; it’s a referendum on his progression, his potential stardom, and his place in the pecking order on a Texas team that has no shortage of talent at his position.

In 2024, Baxter finished the season with 659 rushing yards on 151 carries, averaging about 4.4 yards per carry. Those numbers are solid for a freshman splitting duties with the now-departed Jonathon Brooks. With Brooks off to the NFL, the immediate assumption is that Baxter will become the feature back and see a workload boost. However, that assumption deserves further scrutiny. While Baxter is talented—he was a five-star recruit for a reason—he’s not the only capable ball carrier in Texas’ backfield. Jaydon Blue, who showed flashes of brilliance last season, is very much in the mix, and true freshman Christian Clark arrives with buzz of his own. Sarkisian’s offense also leans heavily on the passing game, especially with Quinn Ewers returning for what is expected to be a Heisman-contending season alongside one of the deepest wide receiver rooms in the country.

So where does that leave Baxter? To evaluate whether he can crack the 700-yard barrier, we need to look at the broader offensive environment. In 2024, Texas averaged just over 178 rushing yards per game, which ranked fifth in the Big 12. That number was spread across multiple backs, with Brooks leading the way, followed by Baxter and a handful of others getting situational carries. Steve Sarkisian has long favored a committee approach in his backfields, and with the passing attack expected to be more explosive than ever, it’s possible the run game becomes more of a complement than a focal point.

Still, it’s reasonable to project some statistical improvement for Baxter simply through natural development. The sophomore leap is real, especially for running backs. With a full offseason to grow in the system, refine his pass protection, improve his vision, and physically mature, Baxter is primed for more consistency and possibly more volume. The coaching staff has been vocal about his professionalism, his work ethic, and his readiness to take on a bigger role. His performance in Texas’ spring practices reportedly showed noticeable strides in patience, balance through contact, and understanding of blocking schemes—attributes that suggest he could become a more efficient runner in 2025.

But efficiency alone might not be enough if the touches aren’t there. The presence of Blue and Clark looms large. Blue is dynamic in space and a home-run threat every time he touches the ball. He averaged more yards per carry than Baxter last season and brings a skill set that complements the offense well, especially in spread formations. If Texas finds itself in high-scoring games where chunk plays are prioritized, Blue might get more touches than anticipated. Clark, meanwhile, could be this year’s surprise breakout. Though he’s a freshman, his blend of size and speed makes him an intriguing option, particularly in short-yardage and red-zone scenarios, which could siphon off high-value carries from Baxter.

Another wrinkle is how Texas manages game flow and situations. With so much offensive firepower, the Longhorns could find themselves in numerous blowouts. That could either work in Baxter’s favor—padding stats late in games—or against him if the staff opts to rest key players or distribute reps more broadly. Additionally, Sarkisian has shown a tendency to reward hot hands during games rather than stick to a rigid depth chart. That volatility could result in Baxter getting 18 carries one week and just 8 the next, depending on the matchup and game dynamics.

Injury history is also a factor. Baxter battled some minor injuries during his freshman year, which limited his availability and effectiveness at times. While nothing about his medical outlook is especially concerning heading into the 2025 season, durability is a huge part of hitting yardage milestones. Even missing one or two games can dramatically impact cumulative statistics. Assuming a 13-game season, Baxter would need to average around 54 rushing yards per game to cross the 700-yard threshold. That sounds very doable, but only if he stays healthy and consistently gets double-digit carries.

So let’s examine two possible scenarios. In the optimistic case, Baxter becomes the clear RB1, gets 180–200 carries, and averages between 4.5–5.0 yards per tote. That would place him comfortably over the 800-yard mark, with some upside for even more if he breaks a few big runs. In this case, he’s not just meeting expectations—he’s thriving and potentially positioning himself for early NFL buzz heading into his junior year. He’d be a tone-setter in the offense, the guy Sark turns to when the Longhorns need to control the clock, move the chains, and keep the defense honest.

In the more conservative scenario, Baxter is in a time-share with Blue, sees some goal-line work vultured by Clark, and finishes with roughly the same workload he had as a freshman. Perhaps he’s more efficient—let’s say 4.8 yards per carry—but ends up with only 130–140 carries. That would likely put him in the 600–670-yard range, narrowly missing the mark again. He’d still be a valuable part of the offense, but more of a cog than a centerpiece.

Ultimately, Baxter’s season could go either way, and it may not even be reflective of his talent. This is what makes the over/under debate for 700 rushing yards such an interesting one—it’s less about whether he’s good enough and more about whether the structure around him allows for that kind of production. Offensive line play will matter as well; Texas returns key starters up front, and that continuity could boost run game efficiency overall. If the line dominates, as expected, there could be plenty of rushing yards to go around.

Another X-factor is how Texas approaches late-season games, especially if they’re in contention for a College Football Playoff berth. Down the stretch in 2024, Sarkisian leaned more on the run game to control tempo and limit turnovers. If that trend continues, Baxter might see an uptick in carries in November and December, potentially pushing him past the 700-yard milestone even if his early-season numbers are modest.

There’s also a psychological component. Baxter is undoubtedly aware of the expectations placed upon him. As a top-tier recruit and now a sophomore with meaningful game experience, he knows this is the year he has to show the jump. Players in that situation often take it personally, and that drive can lead to improved performance, both in practice and under the lights. If Baxter starts the year strong, that confidence could snowball into a breakout campaign.

So, over or under? If forced to choose, the safer pick might still be the over. Even in a shared backfield, Baxter is likely to get enough carries to clear the 700-yard mark—barely. Something in the range of 720 to 780 yards feels realistic given the current depth chart and offensive tendencies. He’s not likely to be a 1,200-yard bellcow unless things dramatically shift, but he doesn’t need to be. A strong, consistent season north of 700 yards would affirm his value and set him up for an even bigger role in 2026.

The more interesting discussion might not be about whether he hits a particular yardage number, but what kind of runner Baxter becomes. Can he be a consistent chain-mover? A closer who finishes games? A threat in the passing game? These are the qualities that will define his legacy at Texas far more than a single-season yardage total. But as fans and media debate the over/under, CJ Baxter will be focused on the one thing he can control—running hard, running smart, and earning every yard that comes his way.