As the college football world continues to evolve and teams adjust to new realities, few schools carry as much historical weight and potential for resurgence as the Oklahoma Sooners. Once a perennial powerhouse under head coach Bob Stoops, Oklahoma has faced challenges in recent seasons, from transitioning between coaching staffs to adapting to the evolving landscape of college football. However, Bill Connelly, ESPN’s renowned college football analyst and creator of the SP+ (S&P+ rankings), sees a promising future for the Sooners in 2025.
Connelly, known for his data-driven analysis and deep insights into the sport, has been keeping a close eye on Oklahoma’s program as it rebuilds and reinvents itself. After an underwhelming 2023 season, the Sooners made significant strides in 2024, and many believe that the 2025 season will be the year they break back into the national conversation, contending for a playoff berth and potentially a championship.
In this article, we’ll break down the key factors that Bill Connelly and others believe will allow the Oklahoma Sooners to rise again in 2025, focusing on roster improvements, strategic shifts, coaching dynamics, and the team’s overall trajectory in the competitive landscape of college football.
1. Coach Brent Venables and the Defensive Turnaround
One of the biggest narratives surrounding Oklahoma in recent seasons has been the shift from a predominantly offensive-focused program to one that places more emphasis on building a strong defensive identity. Under the leadership of Brent Venables, a former defensive coordinator at Clemson, Oklahoma has begun to transform its defense into a unit that can keep pace with its high-powered offense.
While Venables inherited a defense that had been porous and inconsistent in years prior, his expertise as one of the top defensive minds in college football is beginning to show results. The Sooners’ defense in 2024 was markedly improved from previous seasons, showing more physicality, discipline, and a much-needed sense of identity. This is important because, as Connelly and other analysts point out, a dominant defense is critical for competing at the highest level, especially when the Sooners face high-caliber offenses in the Big 12 and potentially the playoff.
Connelly has highlighted Venables’ ability to recruit and develop players on the defensive side of the ball as a major factor in Oklahoma’s upward trajectory. Players like Jaren Kanak, a rising linebacker, and defensive backs such as Key Lawrence are key pieces for the future. If the Sooners’ defense can continue to develop into one of the stronger units in the country, it will allow Oklahoma to compete against the elite teams in the Big 12 and beyond.
2. Offensive Firepower with Dillon Gabriel at the Helm
While the defense was a focus for the Sooners’ turnaround, Bill Connelly has been impressed with the offensive improvements under head coach Venables, especially with quarterback Dillon Gabriel at the helm. Gabriel, who transferred to Oklahoma from UCF in 2022, showed flashes of brilliance during the 2023 season, and by 2025, he will be a seasoned veteran with more experience in the Sooners’ system.
Connelly’s analysis suggests that the combination of Gabriel’s arm strength, mobility, and leadership on the field will keep Oklahoma’s offense among the most explosive in the Big 12. Gabriel’s familiarity with offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby’s high-octane scheme allows the team to maximize its offensive potential, creating a balanced attack that can be deadly on the ground and through the air.
In addition to Gabriel, Oklahoma’s skill positions have been loaded with talent, and Connelly believes that with players like Marvin Mims, Jahleel Billingsley, and Gavin Freeman, the Sooners’ receiving corps could be one of the deepest in the country. With Eric Gray’s departure, the Sooners’ running back room will likely have some turnover, but the development of young talents like Tawieco Denson and the use of versatile players out of the backfield will keep Oklahoma’s offense humming.
Connelly believes that a powerful offense combined with a developing defense gives Oklahoma the type of well-rounded team capable of taking the next step toward national prominence in 2025.
3. Recruiting Trajectory and Depth
A major element of Connelly’s optimism regarding Oklahoma’s rise in 2025 is the team’s recruitment strategy and the depth that is being cultivated in Norman. Venables has been a key figure in shaping the program’s future by recruiting not only talented players but also those who fit the team’s defensive identity and the high-tempo offensive system.
In recent recruiting classes, Oklahoma has secured several high-impact players, particularly on defense, where Venables has gone after highly-rated athletes who can excel in his system. For example, Kelvin Gilliam, a top defensive line prospect, has already started to make an impact, while other young players on the roster, like Jaden Rowe, are expected to provide depth and competition at key positions.
On offense, the Sooners have continued to recruit elite playmakers. The offensive line, which had been a concern in past seasons, looks poised for improvement with new talent coming into the fold, including high school stars like Connor Stroh, a mammoth lineman, and Braylen Ingram, a highly sought-after tackle.
The depth Oklahoma is building through its recruiting efforts means that, by 2025, the Sooners should have a team capable of not only competing for Big 12 titles but also potentially going deep in the College Football Playoff (CFP). The depth at every position, from quarterback to linebacker, will provide Oklahoma the versatility and stability necessary to compete at a national level.
4. Big 12 Landscape and Conference Realignment
Another important factor that Connelly points to in terms of Oklahoma’s potential rise in 2025 is the changing landscape of the Big 12 Conference. With Texas and Oklahoma set to depart for the SEC in 2025, the Big 12 will be left with a reshaped lineup. The departure of two of the conference’s historically dominant teams will likely create new opportunities for teams like Kansas State, Baylor, and Oklahoma State to compete for conference championships. But it also provides Oklahoma with a window to seize control of the conference one last time before they make the transition to the SEC.
By 2025, the Sooners will have a prime opportunity to build on the momentum of their improving defense and explosive offense to solidify themselves as the Big 12’s premier team. The absence of the Longhorns and their perennial recruiting battles with the Sooners will make it easier for Oklahoma to recruit top talent and maintain a dominant presence in the conference. In essence, the Sooners’ final years in the Big 12 could see them transition into a more focused and competitive program—one capable of taking full advantage of its status in the conference while also positioning itself for future success in the SEC.
5. The Pressure to Perform and High Expectations
Oklahoma has long been a program with high expectations, and Bill Connelly’s analysis suggests that 2025 will be the year the Sooners rise to meet those expectations. The pressure to win is ever-present at a school with such a storied tradition, and despite some growing pains in recent seasons, the Sooners will enter 2025 with a roster that has the potential to return to the top of the college football world.
Connelly highlights that, while the team has been undergoing a transition period under Venables, the steady progress they have made in 2023 and 2024 suggests they are prepared to take the next step. The Sooners will have a sense of urgency to prove that they can still compete at the highest levels and that they are capable of returning to the College Football Playoff discussion.
With a talented roster, a defense that is rapidly improving, and an offense led by a seasoned quarterback in Dillon Gabriel, the Sooners will have everything they need to make a run at a playoff berth in 2025. This could be a defining year for the program, and with Venables leading the charge, Oklahoma’s resurgence could very well be in full swing.
