With 73 Days Left, Notre Dame Faces Big Question: Can They Sustain Their Impressive Fourth Down Success This Season Again?
As the countdown to the 2025 college football season ticks down to 73 days, Notre Dame fans are eagerly anticipating the return of their beloved Fighting Irish to the gridiron. While expectations remain high after a strong 2024 campaign, one of the more intriguing questions surrounding the team entering this season is whether Notre Dame can once again replicate its fourth down success—a critical aspect of the game that often serves as a make-or-break factor for elite programs. The fourth down decision-making by head coach Marcus Freeman and offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock was a key component of the team’s strategic identity last season, and the outcomes more often than not worked in their favor. But is that kind of high-leverage execution sustainable, or was it a product of situational fortune?
In 2024, Notre Dame ranked among the national leaders in fourth down conversion rate, converting nearly 75% of their attempts. These conversions came in all shapes and sizes—short-yardage power runs, cleverly disguised play-action passes, and the occasional quarterback sneak or trick play. What made this efficiency more impressive was the situational boldness with which the Irish approached fourth down. Whether they were backed up near midfield in a tight game or in the red zone with points on the line, Notre Dame showed no fear in rolling the dice. And time after time, they were rewarded for their calculated aggression.
This success wasn’t born of randomness; it was the result of detailed preparation, exceptional execution, and a coaching staff willing to embrace analytics without abandoning gut instinct. Marcus Freeman, now entering his fourth season at the helm, has steadily evolved as a head coach. In 2024, he trusted his offense more than ever before. The decision to go for it on fourth down wasn’t just about yards—it was about tone. It sent a message to his players and opponents alike: Notre Dame plays to win, not just to avoid losing.
The key question as we look ahead is whether that success can be repeated—or even improved upon—given roster turnover, new strategic variables, and the ever-adaptive nature of college football. Replicating fourth down success isn’t just about play calls. It’s about context: down and distance, field position, opponent tendencies, weather conditions, and most critically, personnel. With star quarterback Riley Leonard returning for his second year in South Bend after transferring from Duke, the Irish have continuity at the game’s most important position. Leonard’s mobility and poise under pressure were instrumental in many of those key conversions last season. His ability to extend plays, read defenses on the fly, and protect the football gave the coaching staff the confidence to put the ball in his hands when it mattered most.
Supporting Leonard will be a strong offensive line—an area of historical strength for Notre Dame—as well as a versatile group of skill players. The run game remains a foundational part of the offense, and the emergence of young backs like Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price last season added the kind of physicality and explosiveness needed for short-yardage situations. If Notre Dame can continue to dominate the trenches, they’ll be in excellent shape to keep converting in clutch moments.
However, sustaining that level of fourth down efficiency won’t be easy. Defenses are smarter, faster, and more prepared than ever. Opposing coordinators will have spent an offseason studying Notre Dame’s fourth down tendencies. They’ll look to disguise looks, bluff pressure, and force the Irish into uncomfortable situations. Success on fourth down in 2025 will require adaptability. The Irish can’t rely on last year’s blueprint alone—they must evolve and expand their package of fourth down options. Whether that includes more quarterback draws, jet sweeps, misdirection plays, or even unorthodox formations, Notre Dame will need to keep opponents guessing.
Another factor that must be considered is game flow and field position. Going for it on fourth down often involves accepting risk, especially if it fails. Will Freeman and Denbrock be as bold if the defense isn’t playing at an elite level? Notre Dame had the luxury of a top-10 scoring defense in 2024, led by future NFL talents on the defensive line and in the secondary. That gave the coaching staff a safety net; even if the offense failed, the defense could bail them out. But with several starters gone to the NFL or graduation—including All-American corner Benjamin Morrison and linebackers Jack Kiser and JD Bertrand—the margin for error may shrink.
That raises a broader philosophical question: should Notre Dame adjust its fourth down aggressiveness to account for defensive uncertainty, or should they double down and lean even harder into their offensive identity? In a sport increasingly dominated by pace, efficiency, and scoring, the answer may be the latter. Conservative play-calling may feel safer, but it often results in surrendering possessions and leaving points on the field. The best teams—the ones competing for College Football Playoff berths—understand that you have to take chances and capitalize on high-leverage opportunities.
Of course, replicating fourth down success also requires a certain psychological edge. It’s not just about play design or matchups—it’s about belief. Belief that you’re going to make the play. That you’re tougher than the man across from you. That you want it more. Freeman and his staff have done an excellent job of instilling that belief in their players. The 2024 team played with confidence, resilience, and swagger. That’s not something that disappears overnight, especially with a strong leadership core returning.
Still, pressure can do strange things to even the most seasoned teams. Notre Dame’s 2025 schedule includes road tests at Texas A&M, USC, and Georgia Tech, plus a home tilt against playoff hopeful Florida State. In those environments, with playoff stakes on the line, every decision will be scrutinized. One failed fourth down could swing a game, a season, or even a coaching tenure. The pressure to get it right—every time—is immense. That’s why preparation is so vital.
To replicate fourth down success, Notre Dame must double down on situational drills in practice, simulate high-pressure moments, and continue embracing data and analytics. But more importantly, they must trust themselves. Trust the process. Trust the playbook. Trust the execution. And trust that being bold is not a gamble—it’s a mindset.
Beyond the Xs and Os, there’s also a broader message here about what kind of program Marcus Freeman is building. Fourth down success is a microcosm of the team’s larger identity. Notre Dame doesn’t just want to be competitive—they want to be elite. They want to challenge the SEC’s dominance. They want to return to national prominence not just in name, but in results. And doing that means taking risks, embracing discomfort, and making the kinds of decisions that separate good teams from great ones.
In that sense, the fourth down debate isn’t just about a statistic. It’s about philosophy. And right now, Freeman’s philosophy is aggressive, fearless, and forward-thinking. Whether it leads to another stellar conversion rate or some painful learning moments in 2025, one thing is clear: Notre Dame won’t be playing scared.
So as the countdown to kickoff continues, and the echoes grow louder in South Bend, the Fighting Irish face a critical challenge: to prove that last year’s fourth down success wasn’t a fluke, but the foundation of a new era. If they can, they’ll be right back in the playoff conversation come December. If they can’t, they’ll have to find other ways to win close games.
Either way, the answer to the question—can Notre Dame replicate their fourth down magic?—will go a long way in determining the fate of their 2025 season.
