LOW EXPECTATIONS FOR ROCKY TOP — Tennessee Football Hit with Disappointing 2025 Bowl Prediction Despite High Hopes and Rising Talent
As the 2025 college football season inches closer, optimism continues to surge in Knoxville. Head coach Josh Heupel has reenergized the Tennessee Volunteers program, recruiting success has elevated expectations, and key players are returning or emerging to fill critical roles. Yet despite the anticipation, a wave of reality hit Vol Nation when several preseason outlets released their early bowl projections—and they weren’t kind to the Big Orange. Instead of forecasting a New Year’s Six appearance or playoff contention, Tennessee was pegged for a middle-tier bowl game, drawing criticism and concern from fans and analysts alike who expected the Volunteers to challenge for higher honors in 2025.
It’s a sobering prediction for a program that has spent the past few years clawing its way back into the national spotlight. After an electric 2022 season and an up-and-down 2023 and 2024 campaign that still showed flashes of growth, the Vols entered the offseason with the pieces seemingly in place to take another leap forward. But early projections suggest that national pundits remain skeptical about whether Tennessee can finish the season among the SEC’s top tier. Most notably, ESPN and several other prediction models have the Volunteers projected to land in either the ReliaQuest Bowl or the Gator Bowl—solid matchups, but far from the elite stage the program has been building toward.
These predictions come as a gut punch to a fanbase that has witnessed consistent improvements on the recruiting trail and in overall program culture. With quarterback Nico Iamaleava expected to lead the offense, a strong returning group on defense headlined by Arion Carter and Jermod McCoy, and a favorable early schedule, many believed Tennessee had a real chance to at least contend for a College Football Playoff berth or an SEC Championship Game appearance. The idea of finishing outside of the New Year’s Six raises difficult questions: What are these analysts seeing that Tennessee fans are not? And more importantly, are these projections fair?
Part of the skepticism stems from uncertainty at key offensive positions. While Iamaleava has shown glimpses of brilliance, he remains largely unproven as a full-season starter. The departure of veterans at receiver and running back leaves a lot riding on young, developing talent like Bru McCoy and Star Thomas. There’s also concern about consistency along the offensive line—a unit that must gel quickly to give the Vols a shot against SEC powerhouses like Georgia, Alabama, and LSU. These are not insurmountable problems, but they require swift development and few missteps if Tennessee is to outperform expectations.
Defensively, the Volunteers may be in their strongest position in years, but even there, doubts persist. Analysts question the depth behind stars like Arion Carter and Jermod McCoy. Injuries or regression from one or two key players could derail a unit that’s expected to carry more of the load while the offense finds its footing. The SEC is not forgiving, and any lapse in performance is magnified under the national spotlight.
Additionally, the strength of the conference itself is likely influencing these bowl projections. With juggernauts like Georgia and Alabama perennially occupying the top spots, and programs like Ole Miss, Texas, and LSU continuing to build momentum, the fight for bowl positioning becomes crowded quickly. Even a 9-3 Tennessee team could find itself pushed into a lesser bowl due to tiebreakers, media bias, or late-season stumbles.
The psychological impact of such a bowl prediction cannot be understated. For players who have bought into Heupel’s vision and worked tirelessly through spring and summer camps, being tagged as a second-tier team is a motivator—but it also brings pressure. They now carry the burden of proving doubters wrong, not just by winning, but by winning convincingly. Every margin, every ranking, every primetime game matters in shaping perceptions that ultimately affect bowl destinations.
Coaches within the program are likely using this as fuel. Heupel and his staff have consistently preached the importance of blocking out noise, focusing on internal standards, and ignoring outside opinions. Yet in a sport where rankings and predictions shape media narratives and playoff paths, the team cannot fully ignore the implications. These projections will likely become bulletin-board material, especially ahead of pivotal early-season matchups that could swing national perception.
For fans, the bowl snub feels like déjà vu. Tennessee has often been the subject of national underestimation, particularly in years where they carry high internal expectations but lack national media backing. Despite Heupel’s turnaround, the memories of mediocrity in the post-Fulmer era still linger in the minds of outsiders. Until the Vols put together a sustained stretch of double-digit win seasons, dominant performances, and postseason success, these kinds of bowl predictions may continue to resurface—fairly or not.
Still, if history has taught anything, it’s that preseason projections often miss the mark. Just a few years ago, Tennessee entered 2022 with modest expectations, only to rise into the playoff conversation after stunning Alabama and producing one of the nation’s top offenses. The pieces for a similar run exist in 2025. Iamaleava’s ceiling is as high as any quarterback in the country, the defense is fast and physical, and the overall roster depth is more SEC-ready than it has been in years.
Key games against Georgia, Florida, and Alabama will determine how quickly Tennessee can shake off these projections and write its own story. Early momentum is essential. If the Vols come out firing in their opener and navigate September unscathed, they will once again crash the national rankings and gain the kind of recognition that elevates their bowl status. In many ways, this bowl prediction represents a baseline—one the team should surpass if it plays to its potential.
It’s also worth remembering that bowl outcomes do not define seasons entirely, especially in this new era of college football. With NIL, the transfer portal, and conference realignment changing the stakes, a program’s trajectory is now measured in recruiting momentum, cultural stability, and NFL Draft success as much as it is in bowl trophies. Tennessee remains strong in those areas, with young stars staying committed, transfer additions buying in quickly, and a coaching staff that continues to develop players at a high level.
Still, the Vols—and their fanbase—want more. They crave that validation that comes with a New Year’s Six selection or a College Football Playoff berth. They want to be in the conversation with the sport’s elite, not looking up from a second-tier bowl game in late December. That desire, that hunger, is what drives this team, and if Heupel can use this preseason slight to galvanize his locker room, the Volunteers could find themselves laughing at these bowl projections come December.
In the end, preseason bowl predictions are just that—predictions. They are informed guesses based on incomplete data, biased perspectives, and cautious analysis. What they don’t measure is chemistry, resilience, leadership, or belief. Tennessee’s 2025 squad has all of those intangibles. Whether that will translate into victories against the SEC’s best remains to be seen, but if this team has shown anything under Heupel’s leadership, it’s the ability to punch above its weight and change the narrative.
So while a ReliaQuest Bowl or Gator Bowl might be the national expectation today, don’t count on that being the final destination. Tennessee has higher goals, and they have the talent to achieve them. The journey begins soon—and if the Vols have their way, the only thing disappointing about these bowl predictions will be how wrong they turned out to be.
