Why the Detroit Lions Could Face Major Cap and Roster Problems If They Mirror the Steelers’ Potential T.J. Watt Contract
The Detroit Lions are riding high after a breakout 2024 season that saw them fall just short of the Super Bowl, but with success comes hard choices—especially when it comes to paying elite defensive talent. While Detroit boasts a promising core, the looming specter of a potential mega-deal for Pittsburgh Steelers superstar edge rusher T.J. Watt could send shockwaves through the NFL, with serious implications for teams like the Lions. The possibility of replicating or matching a contract in the same stratosphere as Watt’s—projected to exceed $35 million annually—raises several red flags in Detroit’s front office. And for good reason.
As general manager Brad Holmes surveys the landscape, he’s likely seeing more than just numbers on a spreadsheet. The Lions’ locker room is built on balance, chemistry, and long-term sustainability. While stars like Aidan Hutchinson have blossomed into franchise cornerstones, the idea of investing quarterback-level money into one defensive player—no matter how dominant—could jeopardize everything Detroit has painstakingly constructed.
Watt, the 2021 NFL Defensive Player of the Year, is rumored to be angling for a record-breaking extension that could reset the edge rusher market. His next contract might dwarf even Nick Bosa’s deal with the 49ers, which was five years, $170 million with $122.5 million guaranteed. If Watt lands something north of that, the ripple effects will be felt far and wide. And it could set an unsettling precedent for Detroit, which is facing a series of major contract decisions of its own.
The Lions already have a number of key players nearing payday status. Aidan Hutchinson, who has notched double-digit sacks in back-to-back seasons and emerged as a leader on and off the field, will be eligible for a new deal after the 2025 season. There’s no doubt he’ll be looking to land among the top edge rushers in the league, especially if the market explodes. Pair that with looming decisions on Alim McNeill, Kerby Joseph, Penei Sewell (who already signed a massive extension), and eventually Jahmyr Gibbs and Sam LaPorta, and Detroit’s books are going to fill up fast.
It’s not that the Lions can’t afford a big contract—they absolutely can. The issue lies in who gets that money and how much flexibility remains afterward. A Watt-level contract could handcuff Detroit’s ability to build a complete team around quarterback Jared Goff, who also recently received a $212 million extension. As the cap situation tightens, the Lions risk becoming too top-heavy, much like the Los Angeles Rams or Green Bay Packers in years past. A bloated contract for a star defender could lead to necessary sacrifices elsewhere: depth at key positions, offensive line talent, or even cornerback help—all of which are vital in a division loaded with dynamic offenses.
Another reason to pause before going full Watt-mode is the cultural risk. Dan Campbell and Brad Holmes have cultivated a gritty, team-first culture in Detroit. Players buy in, fight for each other, and don’t place themselves above the team. Committing historic money to one player—even a deserving one—could send the wrong message. It creates a financial hierarchy that might erode the blue-collar mindset that helped the Lions rise from the ashes of mediocrity.
Additionally, Watt himself has missed significant time over the past few seasons due to injury, including torn pectoral muscles and knee issues. While he’s an absolute game-wrecker when healthy, that kind of contract comes with immense risk. The Lions have already seen how injuries to key players can derail momentum—look no further than the 2023 season when losing key defensive backs late in the playoffs cost them dearly. If you’re committing $35–40 million per year to one defender, you’re betting on near-perfect health and consistent elite production. That’s a steep gamble.
Detroit must also consider their current cap trajectory. The 2024 salary cap jump to $255.4 million gave them some breathing room, but projections indicate that steady increases, not exponential leaps, are more likely going forward. As Hutchinson becomes extension-eligible and rookie contracts transition to veteran salaries, that flexibility will shrink.
Even in a best-case scenario where the Lions land a pass rusher of Watt’s caliber—either through trade or draft—the reality is sobering. They’d be inheriting not only the talent but also the expectation of top-of-market payment. If Watt himself were ever to become available or if a comparable star reached free agency, Detroit would be walking a financial tightrope. How do you keep your core together, retain the right role players, and still pay a superstar $35 million per season?
Brad Holmes has consistently shown that he prefers spreading cap dollars across multiple positions rather than sinking too much into one. The Lions have quietly become one of the most balanced rosters in football, thanks to strategic investments and draft excellence. It’s no accident that Detroit has succeeded with young, affordable talent and mid-tier free agents who overperform. Abandoning that blueprint for a superstar contract would represent a philosophical pivot—and not necessarily a wise one.
There’s also the question of value per snap. While elite edge rushers play a huge role in dictating outcomes, especially on third downs and late-game situations, they still rotate out frequently. They’re not like quarterbacks, who touch the ball every play. So if you’re shelling out more than $2 million per game for a pass rusher, you’re paying top dollar for 60-70% of the defensive snaps. That’s where depth and scheme versatility become vital, and paying one player so much could weaken the unit around them.
Of course, there is the counterargument: elite pass rushers tilt the field, and you can’t win a Super Bowl without one. That much is true. Watt, when healthy, is one of the most impactful players in the game. He can change an entire drive in a single play, and defensive coordinators dream of scheming around players like him. But you don’t need to emulate the exact financial structure of a T.J. Watt contract to build a similar impact. Smart drafting, timely trades, and tiered investments in pass rush depth can yield the same results—without the cap carnage.
The Lions are at a critical crossroads. They can choose to remain disciplined and commit to their identity—or they can chase a headline-grabbing move that might come back to haunt them in two or three seasons. While mimicking a potential T.J. Watt deal might seem appealing to fans dreaming of instant dominance, the long-term cost could be steep. Detroit has built this current iteration of its roster with the long game in mind. Staying the course may not be as flashy, but it just might be the move that keeps them competitive year after year.
Ultimately, Detroit’s success will depend on whether they can thread the needle between rewarding their stars and maintaining a championship-caliber team across all three phases. A T.J. Watt-level contract is enticing, but in the ever-shifting world of the NFL, sometimes the best deals are the ones you don’t make. The Lions have proven that smart football decisions and cohesive locker room culture win games. Now the challenge is staying true to that vision—no matter how tempting the price of superstardom becomes.
