Miami Heat Insider Believes Tyler Herro Will Seek More Than $40 Million Per Year in Next Contract Amid Rising Market

In a recent development that has stirred considerable discussion within NBA circles, a Miami Heat insider has suggested that rising star Tyler Herro is expected to seek a new contract that pays him more than $40 million per year. This expectation, if true, signals a significant shift in the valuation of young NBA guards and marks another pivotal chapter in the ongoing transformation of the Miami Heat roster. Herro, still just 25 years old, has been a critical part of the Heat’s recent success, but the notion of him commanding such a high annual salary has ignited both skepticism and debate among analysts, fans, and even some within the organization.

Tyler Herro’s NBA journey began when he was selected 13th overall by the Miami Heat in the 2019 NBA Draft. Immediately showing signs of promise, Herro became known for his fearless shot-making, smooth offensive skillset, and clutch performances—particularly during the Heat’s unexpected run to the NBA Finals in the 2020 bubble. Since then, he has steadily improved his scoring average, expanded his offensive versatility, and developed into a legitimate starting-caliber guard in the league. Despite facing injuries and inconsistencies at times, Herro’s offensive production has been a key driver of the Heat’s ability to remain competitive in the increasingly stacked Eastern Conference.

Currently playing on a four-year, $120 million extension that he signed in 2022, Herro is not eligible for another extension until the final year of his current deal. However, with the NBA salary cap on the rise and multiple star-level guards resetting the market in recent offseasons, it is becoming increasingly common for players and their agents to plan future negotiations well in advance. According to this Heat insider, Herro and his camp are fully aware of the changing landscape and will be looking to capitalize. In their eyes, Herro’s production and age position him as a player deserving of a contract north of $40 million annually, especially when compared to other young guards who have recently inked max or near-max deals.

While Herro’s raw numbers support the idea that he’s a top-tier scoring guard, questions remain about whether his overall impact on the game matches those earning in the upper echelon of salaries. In the 2024–25 season, Herro averaged over 20 points per game, shot nearly 40% from three-point range, and contributed 5 rebounds and 4 assists per contest. These are certainly strong numbers, and they highlight his ability to generate offense both on and off the ball. However, critics often point to his defensive shortcomings and lack of playmaking at an elite level as reasons to hesitate before placing him in the same salary bracket as players like Donovan Mitchell, Jamal Murray, or even younger emerging stars like Tyrese Maxey.

The insider also emphasized that the $40 million figure is not just about statistics—it’s about market conditions and leverage. With the NBA’s new television rights deal expected to increase the salary cap significantly in coming years, contracts that may seem bloated now could become the norm later. Teams are already adjusting their payroll structures accordingly, and agents are positioning their clients for maximum value in anticipation of this financial growth. As a result, Herro’s camp may view a $40 million-plus demand not as an overreach, but as a forward-thinking move in alignment with the league’s economic trajectory.

From the Miami Heat’s perspective, the possibility of paying Herro that kind of money complicates their long-term roster strategy. The Heat have historically been a franchise built on culture, development, and smart cap management. While they’ve shown willingness to pay their stars—such as Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo—they have also demonstrated a reluctance to overcommit to players who may not fit the long-term championship puzzle. With Butler aging and potentially seeking an extension himself, and with Adebayo likely due for a major raise as well, the idea of committing more than $40 million a year to Herro raises valid concerns about financial flexibility and competitive sustainability.

Additionally, it’s important to note that Herro has been involved in trade rumors in each of the past two offseasons. Whether it was talks involving Damian Lillard, Bradley Beal, or other marquee names, Herro was often viewed as the Heat’s most movable high-value asset. That reality hasn’t changed, and any notion of him commanding a premium salary could impact his trade value going forward. If other teams perceive Herro as a good-but-not-great player with a potentially massive contract attached, it may limit the Heat’s ability to include him in future star-level trade negotiations.

Nevertheless, there’s no denying Herro’s role as a foundational piece for Miami in recent years. Despite a somewhat polarizing reputation among fans, he has consistently produced offensively and shown signs of growth each season. His playoff résumé may not be as stacked as others, but when healthy, he has delivered in big moments. The Heat have struggled offensively in stretches without him, underscoring his importance to their system. Coach Erik Spoelstra has praised Herro’s work ethic and ability to evolve his game, and by all accounts, he remains a respected voice in the locker room.

Whether Herro ultimately receives the kind of deal he’s reportedly targeting will depend on multiple factors. First, his performance over the next one to two seasons will be closely scrutinized. If he can elevate his game to All-Star levels, improve defensively, and prove himself indispensable in deep playoff runs, his case for a $40 million-plus contract becomes significantly stronger. Second, the broader guard market will influence how teams value a player like Herro. If the trend of inflated guard salaries continues, especially for players without elite two-way capabilities, his demand might seem more reasonable in context.

Of course, Miami’s internal assessment will carry the most weight. Pat Riley and the Heat front office have built a reputation for making bold but calculated decisions. If they believe Herro can be a cornerstone piece next to Adebayo and a potential future star acquisition, they may be willing to pay a premium to keep him. If not, they may look to trade him before he reaches his next contract negotiation window, especially if they feel they can use his current deal as a more palatable asset for a disgruntled star elsewhere.

The insider’s revelation has opened a new chapter in the Tyler Herro saga. For fans, it offers a glimpse into the evolving nature of NBA negotiations, where players are not just competing on the court but also in the marketplace. For Herro, it presents an opportunity—and perhaps a challenge—to justify the kind of financial recognition his camp reportedly seeks. And for the Miami Heat, it sets the stage for some difficult but crucial decisions that could shape the future of the franchise for years to come.

As the offseason progresses and front offices around the league begin to plan for the next salary cap spike, Herro’s situation will be one to watch closely. Whether he becomes one of the NBA’s highest-paid guards or a trade centerpiece in Miami’s pursuit of another superstar, his journey reflects the complexities of balancing talent, value, and vision in today’s NBA landscape. One thing is certain: the conversation around Tyler Herro is far from over—and if the $40 million figure is accurate, it’s only just beginning.