National Media Outlet Predicts Tennessee Vols Will Suffer First Loss of 2025 Season Against SEC Rival in Early Conference Clash
The University of Tennessee football program has made no secret of its aspirations heading into the 2025 season: contend for an SEC title, compete for a College Football Playoff berth, and reestablish itself among the nation’s elite. After multiple seasons of steady improvement under head coach Josh Heupel, including consecutive bowl appearances and a promising core led by quarterback Nico Iamaleava, the Vols enter 2025 with real momentum. But not everyone believes that journey to the top will be smooth.
In a recent season projection published by a major national sports media outlet, Tennessee was highlighted as one of the most intriguing contenders in the SEC, yet not without vulnerabilities. According to the outlet’s preseason analysis, Tennessee is projected to drop its first game of the 2025 campaign not in the out-of-conference slate, but in an early SEC matchup on the road—specifically, in Week 4 against the Mississippi State Bulldogs in Starkville.
The prediction raised eyebrows across the college football landscape. While Mississippi State is a solid program and a tough out at home, many fans and analysts expected Tennessee’s first major hurdle to come against more traditional powerhouses such as Georgia or Alabama. The media outlet’s reasoning, however, was rooted in a mixture of schedule dynamics, team development trajectories, and game-day environments that collectively tilt the scales toward an early-season upset.
Tennessee opens the 2025 season with three winnable games: non-conference matchups against Charlotte, Kent State, and UTEP. All three contests will take place in Neyland Stadium, where the Vols have been dominant under Heupel. These games are expected to serve as a warm-up period for Iamaleava and the rest of the offense to settle into rhythm. With Tennessee likely favored by double digits in each matchup, a 3-0 start is widely assumed.
But Week 4 changes everything.
That’s when the Vols head to Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville to take on a Mississippi State team many believe is poised for a breakout season under second-year head coach Jeff Lebby. The Bulldogs have restocked their roster through the transfer portal and recruiting, particularly on defense. They’re also known for creating chaos at home, where the cowbells ring loud and the atmosphere is among the most hostile in the SEC.
The national media outlet made several key points in support of its projection. First, it questioned Tennessee’s ability to establish offensive consistency on the road against a physical, disruptive defensive front. Mississippi State, which ranked in the top half of the SEC in sacks and tackles for loss in 2024, returns a veteran group that thrives in front of the home crowd.
Second, the analysis pointed to the potential for offensive growing pains early in the year. While Iamaleava is entering his second season as a starter, he will be operating behind a mostly new-look offensive line and with some unproven pieces at wide receiver following the departure of several key targets to the NFL and transfer portal. The timing, chemistry, and protection required to operate Heupel’s up-tempo offense may still be coming together in September.
Third, and perhaps most importantly, the media outlet emphasized the situational trap of this game. The Vols, potentially 3-0 and riding high, could be looking ahead to a massive home showdown with Oklahoma the following week—a marquee matchup loaded with storylines. Oklahoma, now a fellow SEC member, brings back a talented roster and would mark a statement game on national television. The concern is that Tennessee could fall into the classic “lookahead” trap, underestimating Mississippi State in the process.
Those factors, combined with Mississippi State’s desperate hunger for a signature win, led the outlet to label the Bulldogs as the “most likely upset alert opponent” on Tennessee’s schedule. The article stopped short of calling Mississippi State the better team, but emphasized that timing and environment can level the playing field quickly in college football.
The reaction from Vols fans has been mixed. Some dismissed the prediction outright, citing Tennessee’s superior talent, coaching staff continuity, and the leadership of Iamaleava as reasons for confidence. Others, however, acknowledged that the SEC has no off-weeks and that even a marginal dip in focus or preparation can be costly on the road.
Josh Heupel, for his part, has frequently talked about the importance of “1-0 every week” and not looking ahead. But the fact remains that Tennessee will be favored in each of its first three games, and will face a highly emotional, potentially ranked Mississippi State squad in their SEC opener. If the Vols aren’t sharp, the prediction could prove prophetic.
One former Tennessee assistant coach weighed in on the prediction, telling local media that it wasn’t as far-fetched as some believe. “That place is tough to play. Starkville at night with a hyped-up team? I’ve seen more talented Tennessee squads go down there and struggle,” he said. “If we go in there sloppy, it could be a long day.”
Still, the Vols have reason for optimism. Iamaleava has shown signs of blossoming into a star, and the defense under Tim Banks continues to trend upward, particularly in the secondary. The linebacker group has also improved, and Tennessee’s front seven has the depth to match up physically with most teams in the league.
The key question will be whether the offensive line, particularly the tackles, can hold up in hostile environments. If they can protect Iamaleava and give him time to work through progressions, the offense should be able to score against almost anyone. But if the Bulldogs’ edge rushers can generate pressure and collapse the pocket early, it could disrupt Tennessee’s tempo and force mistakes.
Beyond that, there’s the mental component. Last year’s Vols team showed occasional lapses in intensity, particularly in games they were expected to win. That trend cannot continue if Tennessee wants to truly contend for titles. Every SEC game must be treated like a championship week, and the Mississippi State matchup might serve as a referendum on the team’s maturity and focus.
If Tennessee survives that game unscathed, the prediction becomes moot. But if the upset materializes, it could send ripple effects through the rest of the season. A Week 4 loss would raise questions about Tennessee’s ability to win on the road, manage expectations, and handle pressure in SEC play. It could also impact the College Football Playoff narrative, where early losses—even close ones—can shape perceptions.
Of course, these preseason predictions often come with a grain of salt. Football isn’t played on spreadsheets or power rankings. It’s played on grass and turf, in front of roaring crowds, by 18- to 23-year-olds trying to find consistency and greatness. The Vols still control their destiny, and nothing that happens in the preseason rankings or media projections will decide their record.
Nevertheless, Tennessee fans, players, and coaches will be aware of the noise. That Week 4 trip to Starkville now carries even more significance—not just because it’s the SEC opener, but because someone out there believes it’s where the dream ends.
The challenge now for Tennessee is to prove that wrong. To show they can walk into a tough environment, stay focused, and take care of business. To remind everyone that this is a different team—a team ready to play grown-man football every Saturday, no matter the opponent or setting.
If they do that, the national media will have to eat their words. But if they don’t, the headlines will write themselves: Tennessee, once again, couldn’t get over the hump.
For now, all eyes are on September. The Vols will take the field against Charlotte, Kent State, and UTEP with one goal: perfection. But looming in the distance is a trip to Starkville that may define the trajectory of their entire season.
Whether it becomes a footnote or a flashpoint depends entirely on how Tennessee responds to pressure—something every true contender must learn to conquer.
