Amid NBA Draft announcements, Duke falls while St. John’s rises into the top five in college basketball rankings.

The ever-changing landscape of college basketball was jolted again this week, as NBA Draft declarations sent shockwaves through the national rankings. Duke, a perennial powerhouse, tumbled out of the top five following a string of departures, while St. John’s—energized by a dynamic offseason under head coach Rick Pitino—surged into elite territory. As the dust settles, the contrast in roster stability and recruiting momentum between these two programs has created a shift in the power dynamic, reshaping the outlook for the 2025–26 season.

Duke’s fall from the top five is as much about what they’ve lost as what they failed to retain. Freshman forward Cooper Flagg, widely projected as a potential No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft, announced his decision to stay one more season, offering some consolation. But that silver lining was surrounded by a storm of departures.

Sophomore guard Tyrese Proctor declared for the 2025 NBA Draft after a breakout season, where he averaged 16.2 points and 5.4 assists. His floor leadership and shot-making were pivotal to Duke’s Sweet 16 run, and his absence leaves a glaring void in the backcourt.

More surprising was the decision by freshman center Khaman Maluach to also enter the draft. Though raw, Maluach’s 7-foot-2 frame and rim protection made him a valuable asset. The Blue Devils were hoping to build around a core of Flagg, Maluach, and returning sophomore Jared McCain, but now find themselves scrambling for reinforcements.

Jon Scheyer, in his third season as head coach, has proven adept at reloading via the transfer portal, but this year’s attrition might be too steep to overcome quickly. The incoming class features some talented prospects, including five-star point guard Jasper Johnson, but analysts question whether this group can match the production of the outgoing talent.

The result? Duke slid from No. 3 to No. 8 in the latest preseason rankings—still within striking distance of a Final Four bid, but no longer among the elite.

In stark contrast, St. John’s has become one of the most buzzed-about programs in the country. Rick Pitino’s second offseason in Queens has been a masterclass in roster construction. After narrowly missing the NCAA Tournament last season, the Red Storm have retooled and risen into the national top five, checking in at No. 4 in the latest rankings.

Their rise began with key returnees—most notably forward Joel Soriano, who surprised many by withdrawing from the NBA Draft to play a final season under Pitino. Soriano averaged 15.8 points and 10.9 rebounds per game, anchoring the team on both ends of the court. His leadership, combined with his size and scoring ability, gives St. John’s a foundational presence in the paint.

Pitino then worked his portal magic. The biggest splash came with the addition of former Kentucky shooting guard Justin Edwards, a top-10 recruit in the 2023 class who struggled with consistency under John Calipari but remains brimming with potential. Pitino’s reputation for player development was a major draw, and Edwards could thrive in his up-tempo system.

Other portal pickups include:

• Jahmir Young (Maryland) – A proven scorer and dynamic guard who brings veteran savvy.
• Aidan Mahaney (Saint Mary’s) – A sharpshooting combo guard who adds spacing and playmaking.
• Kel’el Ware (Indiana) – A former McDonald’s All-American who gives the Red Storm a modern, mobile big man.

Together, these additions create one of the deepest and most balanced rosters in the country. St. John’s now boasts a perfect blend of experience, talent, and positional versatility—three hallmarks of Pitino’s most successful teams.

While Duke and St. John’s dominate headlines, the rest of the top 10 saw movement as well. Here’s a snapshot of the new rankings:

1. Kansas – With Hunter Dickinson returning and a top-five recruiting class incoming, the Jayhawks are the early favorites for 2026.
2. UConn – Dan Hurley has built a juggernaut, and even with departures, the Huskies are poised for another deep run.
3. Houston – Defense, depth, and discipline define Kelvin Sampson’s squad, now with added offensive firepower via the portal.
4. St. John’s
5. Arizona – Caleb Love’s return and Tommy Lloyd’s international pipeline keep the Wildcats dangerous.
6. North Carolina – RJ Davis is back, and freshman five-star Ian Jackson is ready to shine.
7. Alabama – Despite losing Mark Sears to the NBA, Nate Oats reloaded with elite shooters and a breakout sophomore in Jarin Stevenson.
8. Duke
9. Creighton – The return of Baylor Scheierman and the emergence of Steven Ashworth provide a potent 1-2 punch.
10. Michigan State – Tom Izzo’s experience-heavy group will be among the toughest defensively.

St. John’s meteoric rise stems from more than just talent acquisition. Pitino’s impact on culture, accountability, and preparation is finally bearing fruit. Known for his attention to detail and defensive intensity, Pitino has instilled a sense of urgency and purpose that had long been absent from the Red Storm program.

Players describe practices as “relentless” and the off-court regimen as “militaristic,” but the results are hard to argue with. In the final month of last season, St. John’s went 6–2, including an upset of then-No. 6 Marquette in the Big East Tournament. That momentum, combined with the current roster upgrades, suggests that the program is entering a golden era.

Pitino’s pedigree—two national championships, seven Final Fours—brings credibility and attracts high-level players. But perhaps more importantly, his presence has galvanized a fan base desperate for relevance. Madison Square Garden could soon return to being the epicenter of college basketball in New York City.

Duke, on the other hand, enters the offseason facing more questions than answers. Can Flagg lead a young, reshuffled roster to national contention? Can Jon Scheyer manage the pressure cooker of following Mike Krzyzewski while navigating a cutthroat recruiting and portal environment?

There’s no doubt Flagg is special—his blend of athleticism, feel for the game, and competitive fire is rare. But without a stable of proven veterans around him, Flagg may face double teams, increased pressure, and the burden of being “the guy” from day one.

And while Duke fans remain optimistic, some critics point to a growing disparity between expectations and postseason results under Scheyer. After back-to-back underwhelming finishes in March, the upcoming season looms as a critical one for the young coach.

The shifting rankings highlight a broader trend: NBA Draft declarations now play as large a role in preseason power rankings as recruiting classes or coaching changes. With NIL (Name, Image, and Likeness) money keeping some players in school longer and draft stock evaluations more public than ever, the decisions made in April and May are every bit as pivotal as those made during March Madness.

St. John’s benefitted from this new reality. Soriano, for example, may have pursued a fringe professional opportunity a few years ago. Now, with NIL incentives and a clear pathway to a winning season, he returned to college.

On the flip side, Duke’s exodus reflects a different kind of calculation—players like Proctor and Maluach are capitalizing on draft buzz even if they’re not consensus lottery picks. The result is greater volatility across the board, as programs wait nervously through spring for final roster clarity.

With St. John’s climbing and Duke retooling, college basketball enters a period of exciting unpredictability. The sport’s traditional powers no longer have a monopoly on attention or talent, and the rise of programs like St. John’s adds to the intrigue of the coming season.

For Pitino, the 2025–26 campaign may represent his best shot at a deep tournament run in over a decade. For Scheyer, it’s a chance to prove he can adapt, rebuild, and win at the highest level under immense expectations.

One thing is certain: the preseason rankings will look far different than they did just a month ago. And with more draft announcements still to come, they might change again soon.