College Football Insider Phil Steele Boldly Predicts Brent Venables’ Oklahoma Sooners as Surprise 2025 Playoff Team Despite 6-7 Season

The college football world thrives on speculation, bold forecasts, and the kind of fearless predictions that spark endless debate among fans and pundits alike. Few voices carry as much weight in the realm of preseason projections as Phil Steele, the veteran analyst and insider whose annual magazine has become a must-read for diehards seeking insights into the upcoming season. This week, Steele made waves on The Herd with Colin Cowherd when he tabbed Brent Venables’ Oklahoma Sooners as one of the most surprising potential contenders for the 2025 College Football Playoff.

At first glance, such a projection might seem more optimistic than realistic. After all, Oklahoma stumbled to a disappointing 6-7 record in 2024, struggling in their first full taste of life inside the SEC. But Steele, never one to follow conventional thinking, sees the Sooners not as a floundering program but as a dangerous team ready to shock the college football landscape.

Central to Steele’s belief is Oklahoma’s overhaul on offense, a transformation headlined by the arrival of new offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle. Known for his creativity, pace, and ability to maximize quarterback talent, Arbuckle is expected to inject life into a Sooners attack that too often sputtered in 2024. The addition of transfer quarterback John Mateer, fresh off a season at Washington State where he threw for 3,139 yards and 29 touchdowns while also rushing for 826 yards, instantly upgrades the most important position on the field. Mateer’s dual-threat capability not only opens up Arbuckle’s playbook but also gives Oklahoma an edge against SEC defenses that pride themselves on speed and physicality.

Joining him in the backfield is running back Jaydn Ott, a transfer from California who brings proven explosiveness and reliability. Ott’s ability to hit the home run on the ground, coupled with his pass-catching versatility, provides Oklahoma with a weapon they lacked in 2024. With a veteran offensive line anchoring the unit and an experienced wide receiver corps ready to stretch defenses vertically, Steele envisions an Oklahoma offense that could go from middling to electric in a matter of months.

Of course, offense alone isn’t what separates Oklahoma in Steele’s eyes. The Sooners’ defense, under Venables’ tutelage, was already among the nation’s elite in 2024. Ranked sixth nationally, the unit held opponents to 87 yards below their season average, showcasing discipline, toughness, and adaptability. That kind of consistency is rare in today’s offensive-driven game, and Steele believes that a team with a top-10 defense always has a chance to win big. With another year of experience, returning leaders, and a few key additions, Oklahoma’s defense could serve as the foundation upon which a playoff run is built.

Schedule dynamics also play a role in Steele’s bold call. Unlike other SEC teams navigating brutal slates, Oklahoma’s 2025 schedule offers a balance that sets them up for success. They have only three SEC road games, avoiding back-to-back gauntlets that often derail contenders, and their annual clash with Texas will be played at a neutral site as usual. While the SEC grind is never easy, Steele believes Oklahoma’s path is manageable enough for Venables’ squad to put together a playoff-worthy resume if they can capitalize on early momentum.

Another factor in Steele’s forecast is the psychological resilience of the program. The Sooners endured growing pains in 2024, but Venables, a defensive-minded coach who built his reputation at Clemson, is entering his fourth season at the helm with a clearer identity and roster built more in his image. There is a sense that Oklahoma has weathered the storm of transition—adjusting to SEC competition, reshaping recruiting pipelines, and installing a defensive culture—and is now positioned to reap the benefits.

Ranked No. 18 in the AP preseason poll, Oklahoma is hardly a consensus playoff pick. Many analysts view them as a fringe top-20 team with too many questions to be taken seriously in the national conversation. But Steele insists that the pieces are in place for the Sooners to make a legitimate run. Their opener against Illinois State on August 30 should serve as a tune-up, but from there, every week will be a test of their ability to blend new offensive firepower with defensive dominance.

The heart of Steele’s argument is that Oklahoma doesn’t need to be flawless; they just need to find consistency and avoid the self-inflicted mistakes that plagued them last year. In his eyes, the Sooners’ ceiling is as high as any program in the SEC, and if Mateer and Arbuckle click quickly, Oklahoma could emerge as the conference’s fourth playoff team behind established powers like Georgia, Alabama, and Texas.

For fans, Steele’s prediction is both exciting and nerve-wracking. The Sooners have not reached the College Football Playoff since the 2019 season, and the fanbase is eager for a return to the national stage. The move to the SEC was supposed to elevate Oklahoma’s profile, but it also raised questions about whether the program could consistently compete with the league’s heavyweights. A playoff run in 2025 would go a long way toward silencing those doubts and reasserting the Sooners as one of college football’s premier brands.

Still, skepticism lingers. Critics point out that Oklahoma’s offense was erratic last season, and while Arbuckle and Mateer bring promise, untested combinations often take time to gel. Furthermore, the SEC is a meat grinder where even talented teams can stumble, and the margin for error in the playoff race is razor-thin. One or two bad Saturdays could undo all of Steele’s optimism.

Yet, Steele’s track record of uncovering hidden contenders lends credibility to his forecast. Year after year, he has identified teams on the rise before the mainstream caught on, and he sees Oklahoma as fitting that mold in 2025. His confidence in Venables’ defense, combined with the offensive infusion, paints a picture of a program ready to surprise.

As August turns into September, all eyes will be on Norman to see if Steele’s prediction begins to take shape. A strong start could fuel belief inside and outside the locker room, while early stumbles would revive memories of 2024’s frustrations. For Venables, the challenge is clear: harness the talent, manage the schedule, and keep his team grounded amid the noise.

The beauty of Steele’s call lies in its audacity. College football thrives on storylines where underdogs rise, reputations are challenged, and history is made. If Oklahoma can make good on this bold projection, the narrative will shift from doubt to vindication for Venables and his staff. For now, the Sooners remain a fascinating wildcard in the 2025 season—a program with elite potential, a favorable setup, and a respected analyst willing to stick his neck out for them.

Phil Steele’s boldness has ensured that Oklahoma will open the season under a brighter spotlight than usual, and whether they soar or stumble, the Sooners will be one of the most scrutinized teams in the country. Their quest begins against Illinois State on August 30, but their real journey is about chasing belief, redemption, and the chance to prove that they belong among college football’s final four when December arrives.

In the end, only time will tell if Steele’s playoff vision for Oklahoma proves prophetic or premature. But for now, his words have injected energy, conversation, and a sense of possibility into a program yearning for a return to glory. The Sooners may not be the safest bet, but in the unpredictable theater of college football, that makes them all the more dangerous.