Even without Caitlin Clark, ESPN predicts the Indiana Fever will beat Angel Reese’s Chicago Sky.
The Indiana Fever and the Chicago Sky have quickly become two of the most talked-about franchises in the WNBA, with both teams undergoing rebuilds while also emerging as must-watch basketball thanks to the arrival of generational college stars. Caitlin Clark and Angel Reese, two of the most decorated rookies in recent memory, have brought an entirely new audience to the WNBA, filling arenas, boosting ratings, and reigniting rivalries. However, a surprising twist in the narrative has put an unexpected spotlight on an upcoming game between the two teams. According to ESPN, the Indiana Fever are predicted to defeat the Chicago Sky—even without Caitlin Clark. This projection has stirred discussion and sparked curiosity across fan bases, analysts, and casual viewers alike.
Caitlin Clark’s impact on the Fever has been immediate. Despite the team’s early struggles in the season, Clark’s ability to shoot from range, command the floor, and distribute the ball with extraordinary court vision has transformed the identity of the franchise. Her presence has made the Fever a threat even when trailing late in games, as her deep shooting range often stretches defenses to the breaking point. Yet, despite her importance, ESPN’s projection suggests that the Fever can still find a path to victory even if she is sidelined for this matchup. That’s no small claim considering Clark’s statistical and cultural influence on the team. ESPN’s model, often influenced by recent performances, injury reports, and individual player efficiency ratings, seems to have confidence in Indiana’s supporting cast and coaching system to withstand her absence.
The Fever have quietly developed a versatile core that doesn’t rely exclusively on Clark. Aliyah Boston, last year’s Rookie of the Year, remains a dominant interior force. Her ability to defend, rebound, and score efficiently in the paint gives Indiana a consistent option in half-court sets. Though Boston’s numbers have been somewhat suppressed due to opposing defenses zeroing in on her and Clark’s high usage rate, she has the skillset to anchor the team in Clark’s absence. With Clark off the floor, the ball is expected to be in Boston’s hands more often, allowing her to operate with more freedom in the post and force mismatches against Chicago’s interior defenders.
Kelsey Mitchell, a veteran presence and one of the league’s most prolific scorers in recent seasons, also steps into a more prominent role without Clark. Mitchell is known for her ability to create her own shot, whether slashing to the rim or pulling up from mid-range. Her ball-handling and shot-making can keep the offensive tempo alive, even without Clark’s floor-spacing. When the Fever rely more heavily on Mitchell and Boston, the offense naturally shifts to a more traditional inside-out game, which can be effective against a Sky team that has occasionally struggled to contain dynamic guard play and post scoring simultaneously.
On the defensive end, the Fever have made steady improvements since last season. With Victoria Vivians, NaLyssa Smith, and Erica Wheeler providing length and activity across multiple positions, Indiana has the tools to disrupt the rhythm of opposing offenses. Against a Chicago team that relies heavily on transition baskets and the energy of its frontcourt, Indiana’s transition defense and rebounding will be crucial. Smith’s development as a two-way player could be a deciding factor, as she will likely be tasked with guarding the paint while also helping to initiate fast breaks off rebounds.
The Sky, meanwhile, are building their identity around hustle, rebounding, and physicality. Angel Reese embodies all of those qualities. As a rookie, she has made an immediate impact with her tenacity on the boards and her ability to finish through contact. Reese has brought a level of emotional intensity that energizes her teammates and frustrates opponents. Her game is predicated on toughness and motor, attributes that can make a major difference in close matchups. However, Reese’s offensive game, while effective inside, remains a work in progress when facing elite defenders. Against players like Boston and Smith, who are adept at positioning and footwork, Reese may find fewer easy baskets than usual.
Chicago’s backcourt, while athletic and aggressive, has lacked consistency in its outside shooting and shot selection. Marina Mabrey and Dana Evans have both had standout performances this season, but they’ve also had stretches of cold shooting that have cost the Sky momentum in tight games. If the Fever can clog driving lanes and force Chicago to rely on jump shots, they may find success in containing the Sky’s offensive flow. Without a dominant perimeter scorer to create space, Chicago’s offense can occasionally stagnate, especially against teams that switch well and deny entry passes into the post.
Another factor in ESPN’s prediction likely stems from coaching and game planning. Christie Sides, head coach of the Indiana Fever, has shown tactical flexibility throughout the early part of the season. She has made in-game adjustments that maximize her team’s strengths while minimizing weaknesses, and she often changes defensive schemes to exploit the inefficiencies of opponents. Against the Sky, Sides may lean on a defensive strategy that forces the ball out of Reese’s hands and pressures the Sky’s guards into contested shots late in the shot clock. With Clark unavailable, Sides will likely simplify the offensive playbook, focusing on motion, spacing, and high-percentage shots to avoid turnovers and maintain ball movement.
ESPN’s prediction also considers momentum and intangibles. Indiana may be coming into this game riding the emotional high of a recent win or close game against a top-tier opponent, giving them the confidence needed to play with a chip on their shoulder even without their superstar. The Fever’s role players, often overshadowed by Clark’s fame, may see this as an opportunity to shine and make their mark. Such motivation can often lead to unexpected heroics, especially in front of a home crowd or in a nationally televised game where the spotlight is intense.
Moreover, playing without Clark forces Indiana to rely more on structure and discipline rather than improvisation. Clark’s brilliance often encourages spontaneous play—quick three-point shots, no-look passes, or deep pull-ups that only she can make. Without her, the team may settle into more methodical sets, reducing turnovers and increasing the chances of efficient possessions. This shift can paradoxically benefit the Fever against a Sky team that thrives in chaos and transition.
From a psychological standpoint, the absence of Clark could also alter the mindset of the Sky players. Some may subconsciously lower their guard or change their game plan, assuming the matchup becomes easier without Clark on the court. This underestimation can be dangerous, as it often leads to sluggish starts or overconfidence. If Indiana comes out aggressive and executes its game plan effectively, they can seize control early and force Chicago to play from behind—a position the Sky have not always responded to well this season.
Angel Reese’s presence will undoubtedly influence the game. Her rebounding and emotional leadership are invaluable, and she has already proven capable of swinging momentum with her play. However, she cannot carry the Sky alone. Chicago will need contributions from multiple players, both offensively and defensively, to overcome an Indiana team that is eager to prove its depth and resilience. Players like Elizabeth Williams, Courtney Williams, and Isabelle Harrison must step up and provide stability, particularly in the half-court offense.
Injury depth and fatigue could also play a role. The WNBA schedule is condensed, with teams often playing multiple games in a short span. If the Sky come into this game with tired legs or nagging injuries, their energy may dip in the second half—opening the door for Indiana to pull away. Conversely, the Fever’s younger roster might benefit from fresher legs and a greater willingness to run and push the pace, particularly in the fourth quarter.
The prediction by ESPN is not merely about talent on paper but about matchups, coaching, team chemistry, and momentum. It signals that the Fever, even without their rookie phenom, are not a one-woman team. They are building a foundation of toughness, defensive integrity, and shared offensive responsibility. ESPN’s analytics team likely sees enough of those ingredients in place to give Indiana the edge over a Sky team that, while improving, is still finding its own rhythm.
It also serves as a reminder of the ever-evolving nature of the WNBA. Stars like Caitlin Clark and Angel Reese may draw headlines, but games are still won by teams, not individuals. Depth, strategy, and execution remain the hallmarks of successful franchises. For the Fever, this game presents a chance to validate their broader development and to show fans and critics alike that they are more than just the team with the biggest name in women’s college basketball.
Ultimately, while ESPN’s prediction is based on data and recent trends, the game itself will be decided on the court. The Fever have the tools, the motivation, and the coaching to make good on the projection. The Sky have the grit, the drive, and a rising star of their own determined to make her mark. With or without Caitlin Clark, the stage is set for another compelling chapter in what promises to be a fierce and developing rivalry. And if Indiana does come out on top, it will be a victory not just in the standings, but in their journey toward becoming a complete and competitive team in the post-Clark era.
