Josh Heupel’s SEC Hot Seat Ranking Reveals Where Tennessee’s Head Coach Stands Compared to His Conference Coaching Peers
In the always volatile and pressure-packed world of SEC football, job security is never guaranteed—no matter how successful a head coach may have been in previous seasons. The conference is the gold standard of college football, where expectations are relentless, recruiting is cutthroat, and patience is razor-thin. For Tennessee head coach Josh Heupel, now entering his fourth full season in Knoxville, the question looms: where does he stand on the metaphorical coaching “hot seat” compared to his SEC counterparts?
When Heupel was hired in early 2021, Tennessee was a program reeling from the Jeremy Pruitt era, NCAA investigations, and a depleted roster. Expectations were modest. But Heupel wasted little time instilling his fast-paced, quarterback-friendly offensive system and reviving a stagnant program. After a respectable 7–6 debut season, Heupel took the SEC by storm in 2022 with an 11–2 record, highlighted by a seismic upset over Alabama and a resounding Orange Bowl win over Clemson. That breakout year thrust Tennessee back into national relevance, and Heupel into conversations about the country’s most innovative offensive minds.
However, the 2023 and 2024 seasons brought a subtle shift. Though not disastrous, the Vols failed to reach the same heights as that magical 2022 campaign. Tennessee won nine games in 2023 and followed with another 9–4 mark in 2024. Solid, yes—but in the SEC, especially in a conference that now includes powerhouses like Texas and Oklahoma, the bar is rising every year. For a fanbase starved for championships and eager to see Tennessee consistently challenge Georgia and Alabama, anything short of elite results can quickly shift perception. That’s the nature of the hot seat rankings—where context, momentum, and expectations matter as much as actual win totals.
So where does Heupel stand heading into the 2025 season? According to most national and regional media outlets tracking coaching hot seats, Heupel is not in immediate danger. In fact, he’s comfortably in the middle of the pack, if not slightly safer than most. His offensive system remains respected, recruiting has been trending upward—especially with blue-chip quarterbacks like Nico Iamaleava and five-star receivers coming in—and Tennessee has shown enough competitiveness in the SEC East to indicate the program isn’t regressing. But the seat is not ice cold either. A third straight nine-win season with no SEC title appearance could start to turn up the heat ever so slightly.
To understand Heupel’s position, it’s helpful to compare him to the rest of the league’s coaches.
At the top of the SEC, in terms of job security, sit Georgia’s Kirby Smart and Alabama’s Kalen DeBoer. Smart, fresh off multiple national championships and a string of dominant recruiting classes, has built a juggernaut in Athens. There’s zero heat on him. DeBoer, although new to the conference after taking over for the legendary Nick Saban, is coming off a playoff appearance with Washington and inherits a loaded Crimson Tide roster. He has a wide runway to succeed, especially if he keeps Alabama in championship contention.
Texas’s Steve Sarkisian is also sitting comfortably after a College Football Playoff appearance and a Big 12 title. The Longhorns’ move to the SEC brings increased scrutiny, but Sarkisian’s ability to attract talent and win big games has bought him security. Similarly, Brian Kelly at LSU, despite a somewhat inconsistent tenure, has continued to recruit well and produce offensive fireworks. Unless LSU takes a dramatic step backward, Kelly isn’t facing serious pressure yet.
Then there’s coaches like Lane Kiffin at Ole Miss and Eliah Drinkwitz at Missouri. Kiffin continues to generate headlines and put up strong offensive numbers, while Drinkwitz led Missouri to a 10-win season and New Year’s Six bowl berth. Both have climbed the rankings in terms of job security after what could have been shaky starts early in their tenures.
On the opposite end of the spectrum are coaches with real pressure heading into 2025. Sam Pittman at Arkansas enters the season needing a serious turnaround. After a promising start to his tenure, back-to-back disappointing seasons have made his seat one of the hottest in the league. Similarly, Billy Napier at Florida is entering a make-or-break year. The Gators’ lack of offensive identity, missed bowl games, and recruiting stumbles have caused unrest in Gainesville, where expectations mirror those at Tennessee.
Shane Beamer at South Carolina is in a similar position. After generating momentum early, Beamer’s squad has faltered in key moments and struggled to maintain consistency. If South Carolina doesn’t push for at least eight wins in 2025, he could face real heat. Clark Lea at Vanderbilt, despite incremental improvements, is always under pressure due to the program’s challenges in competing at the SEC level. While Vanderbilt isn’t quick to fire coaches, fan patience is limited.
Brent Venables at Oklahoma finds himself in a nuanced situation. The Sooners are entering the SEC after a solid 2024 season, but the expectations in Norman are massive. Anything less than playoff contention could trigger concern. However, his strong defensive reputation and returning talent give him breathing room in 2025.
Newer faces like Mike Elko at Texas A&M and Jeff Lebby at Mississippi State are still in the grace period of their tenures. Elko, after taking over from Jimbo Fisher, has already improved the locker room culture and implemented a disciplined approach that resonates with fans and players. Lebby, meanwhile, is trying to rebuild a program from the ground up. Both are safe for now, though the nature of SEC football means that goodwill can vanish quickly with losing streaks.
Back to Heupel—his situation is unique because he already has a signature season (2022) and a proven track record of developing quarterbacks. His offenses are among the most explosive in the nation when clicking, and Tennessee is no longer an afterthought in the SEC East. Recruiting remains steady, and NIL support in Knoxville is as strong as ever. Still, the pressure to turn promise into consistent championship contention lingers. Tennessee’s administration has invested heavily in Heupel’s vision, and with the playoff expanding, expectations are to be in that picture regularly.
Where Heupel could face increased pressure is if Tennessee falls behind Georgia, Texas, and Florida in recruiting and on-field performance. The Vols have had an edge over the Gators in recent years, but Napier’s aggressive recruiting could narrow that gap. Georgia is a machine, and if Tennessee can’t get past them again soon, that frustration will grow. The fanbase believes Heupel is the right man, but they also want results beyond feel-good stories and nine-win finishes.
It’s also worth noting that expectations rise with success. Heupel created those expectations by winning big early. Now, anything short of playoff contention is viewed with more scrutiny. The coming season could be pivotal. With Iamaleava potentially taking over full-time at quarterback, there’s excitement about a return to the 2022 form. If the Vols can knock off a few ranked opponents and finish the season strong, Heupel’s seat stays cool. But another four-loss season without a marquee win might change the conversation by year’s end.
As it stands now, Josh Heupel is not on the hot seat—but he’s not immune from the pressure that comes with coaching in the SEC. He’s somewhere between “comfortable” and “cautiously watched,” a tier shared by several coaches trying to take the next step in an ultra-competitive league. What gives Heupel an edge is his offensive mind, his connection with players, and the goodwill he’s built since taking over. What puts him at risk is the escalating arms race in the SEC, where coaches are hired to win championships—not just finish in the Top 25.
So when evaluating Heupel’s hot seat ranking compared to the rest of the SEC, the verdict is clear: he’s in a good spot—but the margin for error is shrinking. The Vols believe in their coach, but in this league, belief only lasts as long as the wins keep coming. 2025 will be a defining year for Heupel’s long-term future in Knoxville, and the entire SEC will be watching.
