Josh Pate’s 9-3 Projection for Alabama Sparks Debate as Crimson Tide Seek Redemption and Dominance in 2025 Season
In the world of college football, few things stir the pot quite like preseason projections—especially when those projections involve Alabama. The Crimson Tide, a program synonymous with winning and championships, has been a perennial fixture in the College Football Playoff conversation for over a decade. But with a new era underway and significant changes across the board, respected analyst Josh Pate has made waves by projecting a 9-3 regular-season record for Alabama in 2025—identical to their mark from the previous year.
The projection, released through Pate’s analytical model on his “Late Kick” show, has quickly become a topic of heated debate among fans, analysts, and even opposing coaches. Is 9-3 a fair assessment of Alabama’s current standing, or an underestimation of a program still loaded with elite talent? And perhaps more importantly—how will Alabama respond to being doubted?
To understand the significance of this projection, context is critical. Alabama finished the 2024 regular season 9-3, then lost in the College Football Playoff semifinal, capping the season at 10-4. It was a respectable outcome by almost any standard, but for Alabama—a school whose football identity is rooted in national titles—it marked a step down. The retirement of legendary head coach Nick Saban added to the uncertainty, ushering in a new regime under former Washington coach Kalen DeBoer.
DeBoer, known for his offensive brilliance and strong player relationships, took over a program with the highest expectations in the country but with question marks all over the roster. His hiring was bold and strategic—he had taken the Huskies to the national title game in just his second season, showing an ability to build quickly and win big. Alabama’s administration believed that with DeBoer at the helm, the Crimson Tide could modernize while preserving their standard of excellence.
Still, even DeBoer’s pedigree hasn’t erased doubts among some observers. Pate’s model reflects those doubts—not necessarily in terms of talent, but in terms of schedule difficulty, roster turnover, and the challenge of transition. The 2025 Alabama team will be breaking in a new starting quarterback, a new defensive scheme, and a staff that, while respected, is largely unfamiliar with the SEC’s weekly brutality.
The model projects losses in three high-profile games: a road matchup against Georgia, a visit to Baton Rouge to face LSU, and the always-unpredictable Iron Bowl against Auburn. All three are away from home, and all three represent hostile environments where Alabama’s margin for error will be razor thin. It’s not that the Crimson Tide aren’t capable of winning these games—but that, statistically, winning all of them with a first-year coach and significant roster turnover is unlikely.
Yet history offers a counterargument. Alabama has consistently defied projections, thriving in situations where others saw weakness. The roster is still packed with four- and five-star talent. The offensive line returns several starters, including former No. 1 overall tackle Kadyn Proctor, who recommitted to Alabama after a brief stint in the transfer portal. The backfield duo of Jam Miller and Justice Haynes is one of the best in the SEC. And the receiver room is led by Isaiah Bond and Ryan Williams, both of whom are game-breakers.
The quarterback position, perhaps the biggest variable in Pate’s model, will likely be filled by sophomore Austin Mack. While unproven in games, Mack has drawn rave reviews in practice for his poise, arm strength, and football IQ. DeBoer’s system is quarterback-friendly—built on rhythm, spacing, and quick decisions—which could allow a young talent like Mack to flourish quickly.
Defensively, Alabama is transitioning to Kane Wommack’s 4-2-5 scheme, which emphasizes aggression, flexibility, and speed. The key figures on defense—LT Overton on the line, Deontae Lawson at linebacker, and Malachi Moore in the secondary—provide a strong veteran spine. Overton, in particular, has drawn national attention as a potential breakout star and early-round NFL draft pick. The defense might not be as physically dominant as some of Saban’s legendary units, but its speed and versatility could make it one of the most disruptive in the conference.
That’s where the debate around Pate’s projection becomes more intense. The 9-3 prediction isn’t absurd—it’s data-driven and rooted in the reality of Alabama’s schedule and changes. But it also risks overlooking the “Bama Factor”—the cultural expectation of greatness, the internal player development, and the psychological edge that comes from years of winning. Even without Saban, Alabama still carries the weight of its own legacy. And that legacy can’t be fully captured in algorithms.
Fans, predictably, have pushed back against the projection. For a program that has gone undefeated in the regular season six times since 2009, anything short of double-digit wins feels like failure. The fan base isn’t interested in rebuilding narratives or cautious optimism—they want titles. They expect the SEC Championship Game. They expect the Playoff. And they expect to beat Auburn, Georgia, and LSU, no matter the circumstances.
The players have taken notice as well. In post-practice media availability, several veterans have referenced the “outside noise” and used it as motivation. Senior linebacker Deontae Lawson said, “We don’t pay attention to projections. We know what we’re building. Let people talk—we’ll handle the rest on the field.”
That type of mindset is exactly what Kalen DeBoer is hoping to instill. He hasn’t ducked the expectations—instead, he’s embraced them. He’s made clear to the players that the standard remains unchanged. But he’s also emphasized adaptability, team chemistry, and incremental improvement. He knows that championships aren’t won in August—they’re built through daily discipline and unity. And that’s where Alabama might have an edge that no model can measure.
The team has shown signs of buying in. From the spring game to fall camp, players have reported a high level of energy, competition, and focus. The coaching staff has emphasized communication and accountability. Mistakes are corrected quickly. Young players are being challenged to rise. Transfers are blending in with homegrown talent. The locker room, according to insiders, feels more cohesive than it did a year ago.
That’s why Pate’s projection, while grounded in logic, may miss the emotional and cultural elements that define great Alabama teams. This isn’t just a collection of athletes—it’s a brotherhood forged in pressure, forged in legacy, and driven by the pursuit of greatness. A projection can account for returning starters and opponent win totals. It can’t measure pride. It can’t measure hunger. It can’t measure how hard a team practices after being told they’re not good enough.
Alabama will have a chance to silence doubters quickly. The season opens with a high-stakes neutral-site matchup against Wisconsin in Dallas. A dominant performance there would set the tone and give the Tide early credibility. From there, the schedule intensifies. Road trips to Georgia and LSU loom large, but Alabama also has key home games against Tennessee, Missouri, and Ole Miss. Win those, and the conversation shifts dramatically.
Ultimately, Josh Pate’s 9-3 projection is not an insult—it’s a reflection of how hard it is to win in the SEC, especially during a transition. But it’s also a challenge. And Alabama thrives on challenges. Whether or not they go 9-3, 10-2, or run the table entirely, one thing is clear: this team is not interested in excuses or explanations. They are interested in results.
In 2025, Alabama football isn’t just playing for wins. They’re playing for legacy. For pride. For redemption. And with 24 days until kickoff, the countdown isn’t just about time—it’s about transformation. The projection is out there. The expectations are defined. And now, all that’s left is the response.
If Alabama has taught the college football world anything over the last 15 years, it’s this: doubt them at your own risk.
