NHL Insider Reveals Surprising Contract Projection for Stuart Skinner as Oilers Face Critical Decision on Goaltender’s Long-Term Future
An NHL insider revealed the surprising contract prediction for Edmonton Oilers starting goalie Stuart Skinner, and it has sparked widespread discussion across the hockey world. As the Oilers look to solidify their core following a deep Stanley Cup Final run, attention has turned to their 26-year-old netminder, whose evolving role and recent performance have raised critical questions about his long-term value and what it might cost to keep him in Edmonton beyond his current deal. The projected figure, while not outrageous in today’s goalie market, is higher than many anticipated—and it reflects both Skinner’s upward trajectory and the growing pressure on the Oilers to make sound financial choices in the coming years.
Skinner, a local product drafted 78th overall by the Oilers in 2017, has steadily climbed the organization’s ranks and emerged as the clear No. 1 goaltender over the past two seasons. His ascent hasn’t been without growing pains, but his ability to shoulder the starting workload and provide reliable play between the pipes has stabilized a position that had long been a revolving door in Edmonton. After backstopping the Oilers to their first Stanley Cup Final appearance in nearly two decades, Skinner has become a central figure in the franchise’s quest for a championship.
The insider’s prediction? A six-year extension worth approximately $36 million, carrying an average annual value (AAV) of $6 million. For a goaltender with limited playoff experience and only two full NHL seasons under his belt, that projection raised eyebrows. But when viewed through the lens of the modern NHL, where teams are placing a premium on internal development, stability, and value contracts, the rationale begins to make more sense.
Currently, Skinner is signed through the 2025–26 season on a bargain deal that pays him just $2.6 million annually—a contract that has proven to be one of the league’s best values given his starter-level performance. If he continues to progress and maintains his current trajectory, he will be due for a significant raise, especially as the salary cap continues to rise league-wide. Locking him in early, before he reaches unrestricted free agency, could be a smart move by Edmonton’s front office, particularly if they believe Skinner is their long-term solution in net.
Of course, committing to any goaltender at that number and term carries risk. The goalie position is notoriously volatile, with year-to-year consistency difficult to sustain even for the league’s best. While Skinner has shown poise, athleticism, and strong fundamentals, his playoff resume remains a work in progress. His performance in the Stanley Cup Final was solid but not spectacular, and there were moments during the postseason where his youth and inexperience were evident. For the Oilers to make a long-term investment at a top-15 goalie rate, they must be convinced that Skinner’s best years are still ahead of him—and that he’s capable of growing into a truly elite netminder.
From a team-building perspective, the idea of locking in Skinner at a fixed number now could be appealing. The Oilers have major financial decisions looming, particularly with Leon Draisaitl set to hit unrestricted free agency in 2026 and Connor McDavid one year later. Having certainty in net at a manageable cap hit would provide crucial flexibility as the team looks to keep its core together while remaining competitive. A $6 million AAV for a dependable starter is reasonable in today’s NHL, especially when top-tier goalies like Igor Shesterkin and Connor Hellebuyck are earning north of $8 million annually.
Still, the insider’s prediction has sparked debate among analysts and fans alike. Some argue that Skinner hasn’t yet proven enough to warrant such a contract, pointing to his modest save percentages and occasional lapses in high-pressure situations. Others contend that Edmonton must act now to avoid a bidding war or worse—a scenario in which Skinner walks for nothing because the team hesitated. The logic behind a proactive extension is understandable, particularly when considering the instability that can plague teams without a true No. 1 goaltender.
Internally, the Oilers are believed to be high on Skinner’s character and work ethic. He’s known as a quiet, focused professional who has earned the respect of his teammates through steady improvement and mental resilience. His calm demeanor has made him a favorite in the dressing room and a reliable presence during high-stakes games. Coaches have praised his ability to bounce back after tough outings, and his progression has mirrored the team’s overall maturation under head coach Kris Knoblauch.
There’s also a sentimental angle that cannot be ignored. Skinner grew up in Edmonton and was drafted by the team he cheered for as a kid. His journey—from a WHL standout to AHL development project to Stanley Cup Final starter—has resonated with fans. A long-term commitment would be symbolic as much as it is strategic: a hometown talent sticking with his club through thick and thin. That emotional component may not factor directly into negotiations, but it certainly enhances Skinner’s value in the eyes of many within the organization and fanbase.
From a statistical standpoint, Skinner’s numbers have steadily improved. In 2023–24, he posted a 2.62 goals-against average and a .913 save percentage over 58 games—numbers that placed him in the middle of the league’s starting goalie pack. His playoff stats dipped slightly but remained respectable given the caliber of opponents faced. What stands out is his workload and durability. Unlike previous Oilers goaltenders, Skinner managed to stay healthy, play consistently, and carry the team for stretches when the defense faltered. That reliability is not easily replaced.
One concern, however, is the relatively small sample size. Two seasons of starter-level play is promising, but hardly definitive. Goalies like Matt Murray and Philipp Grubauer were once viewed as franchise netminders only to struggle after receiving big contracts. The fear of overcommitting to a player before he has fully established his ceiling is real, especially for a team with championship aspirations. If Skinner regresses, a $6 million AAV could quickly become a cap anchor—limiting the team’s ability to address other areas of need.
This is where the Oilers’ front office faces a critical decision. Do they gamble on Skinner’s upside and reward him with a long-term deal now, potentially securing a bargain if he continues to develop? Or do they wait, risk a higher price tag later, and bet that no other team will make an aggressive offer when his current contract expires? It’s a classic case of risk versus reward—and the answer could shape Edmonton’s roster for the rest of the McDavid era.
It’s also worth noting that the market for goaltending is changing. Fewer teams are handing out massive deals to unproven goalies, and many have opted for tandem approaches that spread the workload and reduce risk. In this context, the Oilers may need to assess whether Skinner is best utilized in a solo starter role or as part of a dynamic tandem. With Jack Campbell’s future in Edmonton highly uncertain—and his contract likely to be moved or bought out—Skinner is currently the only goalie the team can count on. That alone might justify a long-term commitment, particularly if the team lacks viable internal options or free-agent alternatives.
As discussions around Skinner’s future continue to intensify, it’s clear that the Oilers view him as a foundational piece. Whether that belief translates into a lucrative extension remains to be seen, but the insider’s prediction has brought the issue to the forefront. In many ways, Skinner’s situation reflects the broader theme surrounding Edmonton’s offseason: a team on the brink of greatness, seeking stability in every corner of the roster to make one more push for the Cup.
Should the Oilers go through with the projected deal, it would mark another step in their evolution from a team built around individual brilliance to one that understands the importance of depth, reliability, and structure. A franchise goaltender isn’t always the flashiest acquisition, but it can be the most essential one—and in Skinner, Edmonton believes it may have found its answer. Whether they’re willing to pay the price to keep that answer in place long-term could be one of the defining decisions of their championship window.
