Oklahoma Sooners Quarterback John Mateer and High-Octane Offense Projected to Shake Up 2026 NFL Draft by Analyst
The Oklahoma Sooners might be on the cusp of something special, and it begins under center. In a bold projection that could change the conversation around the 2026 NFL Draft, a prominent analyst has spotlighted John Mateer and the Oklahoma Sooners offense as a potential driving force in next year’s talent pool. For those familiar with the program’s history of quarterback excellence—from Sam Bradford to Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray to Jalen Hurts—Mateer’s emergence seems like a natural continuation of a legacy. But even within that tradition, Mateer is crafting something uniquely his own, and NFL evaluators are beginning to take serious notice.
Though he has spent the early part of his collegiate career largely under the radar, the redshirt sophomore from Little Elm, Texas, has made the most of his developmental seasons behind center. With the 2025 campaign expected to be his full-time breakout as QB1, Mateer is stepping into a situation that analysts believe could catapult him into national draft conversations—and possibly even into the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft.
A recent analysis from a draft insider who has successfully predicted the rise of breakout quarterbacks in the past cites Mateer’s blend of athleticism, poise, and arm talent as a package that could prove irresistible to pro scouts. What stands out most is his mental processing. During spring practices and scrimmages, Mateer consistently displayed an ability to work through his progressions and throw with anticipation—traits that separate NFL-caliber quarterbacks from college stars.
The Sooners’ offensive scheme under head coach Brent Venables and new offensive coordinator Joe Jon Finley is also expected to play a critical role in Mateer’s trajectory. The staff has tailored the offense to maximize Mateer’s skill set, incorporating heavy use of play-action, quick reads, and designed quarterback runs. It’s a system not dissimilar from the modern NFL offenses run by Kyle Shanahan or Sean McVay, and that’s no accident. The Oklahoma staff has made a concerted effort to modernize the attack in ways that not only win college football games but also prepare players for the next level.
Mateer’s physical tools are legitimate. At 6-foot-1 and around 200 pounds, he’s not the prototype in terms of size, but neither are most of today’s top NFL quarterbacks. He makes up for it with quick feet, a compact release, and underrated velocity. What’s more, his ability to extend plays and create off-script adds another layer to his NFL potential. In a league increasingly obsessed with mobility and improvisation, Mateer checks boxes that evaluators crave.
Then there’s the supporting cast, which could give Mateer the runway he needs to launch into national prominence. Oklahoma’s receiving corps in 2025 looks to be among the deepest in the SEC, with sophomore standout Jaquaize Pettaway returning and a handful of blue-chip freshmen ready to contribute immediately. The offensive line, bolstered by a combination of veteran transfers and high-upside recruits, will provide Mateer with the protection he needs to operate confidently from the pocket. And in the backfield, the Sooners have a stable of versatile running backs capable of catching passes and moving the chains in the screen game—a key component in showcasing a quarterback’s decision-making and timing.
All of this paints a picture of opportunity. But opportunity is nothing without preparation, and that’s where Mateer has begun to separate himself. Sources close to the program describe him as a gym rat, a film junkie, and a vocal leader in offseason workouts. He has reportedly developed strong chemistry with his receivers during voluntary sessions, often organizing 7-on-7 drills on weekends and pushing for precision in route timing. One teammate described him as “obsessed with being elite,” a trait that might soon put him in the same breath as former Oklahoma quarterbacks now starring in the NFL.
It’s not just his work ethic that’s drawing praise. Analysts have pointed to Mateer’s performance in limited snaps last season, particularly in mop-up duty against SEC defenses, as an early indicator of his upside. While the sample size was small, his efficiency was notable: crisp ball placement, smart pocket awareness, and no panic under pressure. It’s clear that his time as a backup was not wasted, but rather used to hone the mental side of quarterbacking—a process that is now bearing fruit.
NFL front offices are increasingly prioritizing quarterbacks who can make quick decisions and play within structure while also offering the ability to create outside of it. In Mateer, they may be looking at a mid-tier recruit who blossomed into one of the most intriguing dual-threat prospects in the nation. This combination—an ideal scheme fit, high-level physical tools, leadership, and a sharp mind—has the potential to elevate him far beyond his initial recruiting ranking.
The analyst who projected Mateer’s potential breakthrough likened his rise to that of Joe Burrow or Zach Wilson: players who weren’t heavily hyped entering their penultimate college seasons but exploded into the spotlight through production and poise. Mateer, the analyst argued, is walking into the perfect storm: a quarterback-friendly system, a deep offensive roster, and a chance to prove himself weekly in the gauntlet that is the SEC. NFL scouts will get ample tape against elite defenses, and if he performs, the buzz could build quickly.
If Mateer does ascend to NFL relevance, it will also reflect well on Oklahoma’s evolving identity under Brent Venables. Once known for its defensive-minded, grind-it-out approach in the early part of Venables’ tenure, the Sooners have now embraced a philosophy that fuses physicality with creativity. That evolution has not gone unnoticed by NFL teams looking for quarterbacks who are already accustomed to executing pro-level concepts.
Of course, there’s still a season to play, and expectations—especially around Oklahoma—can be a heavy burden. The Sooners fan base will expect Mateer not only to shine individually but to lead the team to contention in the SEC and beyond. That’s a tall order in a conference loaded with elite defenses and hostile road environments. But if spring performance and offseason preparation are any indicators, Mateer is not shying away from the spotlight. In fact, he appears ready to embrace it.
The journey from relative unknown to potential first-round pick doesn’t happen overnight. It’s the result of years of grind, strategic development, and seizing the moment when the lights are brightest. For John Mateer, the 2025 season could be that moment. The NFL Draft is still a year away, but for teams searching for the next great quarterback prospect, the film study has already begun—and it’s starting in Norman, Oklahoma.
If Mateer lives up to this rising hype, he could find himself not just drafted, but drafted early. And if he leads Oklahoma to an SEC title or College Football Playoff berth, he’ll have done so on the biggest stage, against the best competition, under the most pressure. That, more than any combine result or pro day throw, is what NFL evaluators value most.
As the 2025 college football season approaches, John Mateer is on the verge of a defining chapter. Analysts see the pieces falling into place—talent, scheme, leadership, and opportunity—and believe he could ride that wave all the way to the 2026 NFL Draft. If so, Oklahoma will once again prove itself as one of college football’s premier quarterback incubators. And Mateer might be the next name to etch himself into that proud lineage—while shaking up draft boards along the way.
