Paul Finebaum Believes Georgia Football Might Miss College Football Playoff for First Time Since 2020, Sparking National Debate

Paul Finebaum Believes Georgia Football Might Miss College Football Playoff for First Time Since 2020, Sparking National Debate

Paul Finebaum, one of college football’s most influential voices, has never shied away from making bold predictions, and his latest take is already shaking up the college football world. In a recent segment on ESPN, Finebaum expressed serious doubt about Georgia’s chances to make the 2025 College Football Playoff. This is a significant statement considering the Bulldogs have become a perennial playoff fixture under head coach Kirby Smart, winning national championships in 2021 and 2022, and coming close in 2023. According to Finebaum, however, a combination of roster turnover, a tougher SEC slate, and rising competition from other programs has Georgia poised to fall short of postseason glory this year.

Finebaum’s doubts aren’t without foundation. Georgia is entering the 2025 season facing a number of challenges. While the program continues to recruit at an elite level, the loss of several key veterans to the NFL and the transfer portal has created noticeable holes on both sides of the ball. The offensive line, once the anchor of the Bulldogs’ methodical attack, now includes several untested players. Additionally, while quarterback Carson Beck returns with significant experience and accolades, questions remain about the overall consistency of the offense—especially when matched against more dynamic SEC defenses.

The Bulldogs also find themselves adjusting to life in a new-look SEC. With the addition of Oklahoma and Texas, the conference has never been more competitive. Georgia’s 2025 schedule is far from forgiving, featuring matchups against Alabama, Texas, Ole Miss, and Florida. Finebaum highlighted that gauntlet as one of the primary reasons he sees Georgia potentially falling short. “They don’t get the benefit of a soft schedule anymore,” he said. “There’s no room for error this year, and I’m not convinced they’re built for that kind of run right now.”

One of the most critical issues Finebaum raised revolves around Georgia’s defensive identity. Long known for fielding one of the nastiest, most disciplined defenses in college football, Georgia’s defensive unit has undergone significant changes since 2022. Multiple high-end players departed early for the NFL, including standout defenders like Malaki Starks and Smael Mondon Jr. While Georgia certainly has blue-chip talent ready to step in, the lack of experience could create vulnerability, especially early in the season. The secondary, in particular, is viewed as a potential weak point against high-octane offenses like LSU’s or Texas’.

Kirby Smart, who has earned a reputation as one of the sport’s most meticulous and fiery coaches, hasn’t publicly addressed Finebaum’s comments. But there’s little doubt he and his staff are aware of the noise. Smart’s Bulldogs have often thrived in a “prove them wrong” mentality, and 2025 could be another season fueled by outside doubt. Yet the margin for error is as slim as ever. Even a single regular-season loss could jeopardize playoff hopes in a crowded field that includes Michigan, Ohio State, Texas, Oregon, and Alabama—all of whom are poised to make strong playoff pushes.

Another factor in Finebaum’s analysis is the evolving nature of the College Football Playoff selection process. With the expansion to a 12-team format, some might think the path would be easier for elite programs like Georgia. However, the increased field also means that late-season losses or poor performances could significantly affect seeding—and perhaps even inclusion. Finebaum noted that while Georgia may still be one of the “top ten teams in the country,” they might not finish with a strong enough résumé to earn a playoff spot if they don’t win the SEC. In a system where conference championships carry major weight, missing the SEC title game could doom even a one-loss Georgia team.

Finebaum also made a point to praise other SEC teams on the rise. Texas, under Steve Sarkisian, has become a trendy pick to dominate in its first season in the SEC. Meanwhile, Alabama, under Kalen DeBoer, remains a threat with a reloaded defense and a versatile quarterback room. LSU, led by Brian Kelly, continues to build one of the more balanced rosters in the country, and Ole Miss, with Lane Kiffin at the helm, always poses a threat with its explosive offensive schemes. “It’s not that Georgia is bad,” Finebaum clarified. “It’s that they may no longer be significantly better than the rest of the pack.”

For Georgia fans, Finebaum’s comments might seem like premature panic. After all, the Bulldogs finished the 2024 season with only one loss and dominated in several high-profile games. Carson Beck is one of the most experienced quarterbacks returning in the country, and Georgia’s skill positions are once again loaded with 5-star talent. Tight end Lawson Luckie is expected to take on a greater role following Brock Bowers’ departure, and the Bulldogs’ receiver corps is deep and dangerous. The running back room, anchored by Branson Robinson and Roderick Robinson II, remains one of the most physically imposing units in the country.

Still, the road to a championship is never just about talent. It’s about health, chemistry, coaching, and clutch performance in high-pressure moments. Finebaum, never one to blindly praise, is basing his skepticism on how Georgia matches up in those areas compared to its peers. And to be fair, it’s not just Finebaum voicing concern. Several analysts and publications have pointed to Georgia’s potential vulnerability this season, particularly on the road. The Bulldogs will play Texas in Austin and must also visit Oxford to face Ole Miss—two of the toughest road environments in college football.

Even with all the noise, it would be foolish to count Georgia out entirely. Kirby Smart’s teams have consistently overachieved relative to expectations. His system is stable, his assistants are experienced, and his recruiting machine is unmatched. What Finebaum’s comments do, however, is underscore a growing sense that Georgia’s window of absolute dominance may be narrowing. Not because they’ve fallen off a cliff—but because the competition around them is catching up.

It’s also worth considering that Finebaum thrives in stirring up debate. His job is to analyze and provoke discussion, and he often targets elite programs to spark dialogue among fan bases. Georgia, being at the top of college football for several years now, is naturally a prime target. But that doesn’t mean his criticism is unfounded. His insight often reflects what other coaches, players, and insiders are quietly thinking.

Ultimately, Georgia’s 2025 campaign is shaping up to be one of the most scrutinized in recent memory. The Bulldogs are no longer the clear-cut favorite in the SEC, and every game will be treated like a playoff test. If Georgia manages to go undefeated or lose just once while winning the SEC title, it will silence all doubters and reaffirm its place atop the sport. But if Finebaum is right—and Georgia falters at any point—the consequences could be more significant than just missing the playoff. It could mark the end of the Bulldogs’ mini-dynasty era and usher in a new power structure in college football.

Georgia fans, coaches, and players will have their chance to respond the best way possible: on the field. Until then, Finebaum’s prediction will hang over the season like a storm cloud—fueling headlines, motivating players, and giving rival fan bases a reason to believe the mighty Bulldogs are finally vulnerable. Whether he’s right or not, one thing is certain: all eyes will be on Georgia this fall, and every misstep will be magnified under the national spotlight.