Paul Finebaum Confidently Predicts Which SEC Team Will Finally End Its Longstanding College Football Playoff Appearance Drought in 2025
For years, the College Football Playoff has been dominated by a select group of programs — Alabama, Georgia, Clemson, Ohio State, and more recently, Michigan. The Southeastern Conference (SEC) has been a consistent powerhouse in this era, often sending multiple teams to the Playoff and winning national championships with regularity. Yet, not every SEC program has been part of the elite club. Some have come painfully close, while others have been rebuilding and rebranding for a shot at national relevance. According to ESPN analyst Paul Finebaum, however, one team’s wait is about to end.
Finebaum, one of the most respected voices in SEC football and known for his passionate takes and deep-rooted connections in the sport, recently named a program that he believes is finally going to break through and make its first College Football Playoff appearance in the upcoming 2025 season. That team is the Tennessee Volunteers.
This may not come as a complete shock to those who have followed Tennessee’s recent progress. Since the arrival of head coach Josh Heupel, the Volunteers have steadily rebuilt their identity, reinvigorated their offense, and restored belief among the fanbase. But Finebaum’s endorsement puts a national spotlight on Knoxville — one of the most fervent football cities in America — and sets expectations sky-high for a program that hasn’t reached the pinnacle in decades.
The College Football Playoff is expanding to 12 teams in 2025, opening new doors for contenders who have hovered just outside the elite tier. While the traditional four-team system left little room for teams that stumbled even once, the new structure promises to be more inclusive, particularly for teams in power conferences like the SEC. Tennessee, long a sleeping giant, may finally have the pieces — and now, perhaps the opportunity — to make it count.
Finebaum’s confidence in Tennessee is not just based on speculation. It’s rooted in a combination of talent, coaching, schedule dynamics, and momentum. The Vols have recruited at a high level in recent cycles, especially on offense. They return a promising quarterback, Nico Iamaleava, who was one of the most highly rated recruits in the country and has all the tools to lead a Playoff-caliber offense. Additionally, Heupel’s offensive system is widely regarded as one of the most explosive in college football. It helped revitalize Hendon Hooker’s career and propelled Tennessee to major wins in recent seasons, including their epic victory over Alabama in 2022.
Another factor working in Tennessee’s favor is the state of the SEC East. With Georgia continuing to be a juggernaut, the Vols will still face stiff competition, but with Florida and South Carolina in transitional phases, and Kentucky remaining inconsistent, Tennessee has a clear path to at least finish second in the division — a position that may be enough in a 12-team format.
The 2025 schedule is also advantageous. The Vols get some key games at home in Neyland Stadium, where they’ve been nearly unbeatable under Heupel. With one of the most passionate home-field environments in the country, Tennessee’s ability to win big games in Knoxville could be a determining factor in their Playoff pursuit. If they can notch signature wins and avoid bad losses, the resume will be strong enough to impress the selection committee.
Beyond the X’s and O’s, though, Finebaum pointed to the cultural shift that has taken place in Knoxville. “You can just feel it,” Finebaum said during a recent appearance on ESPN. “This isn’t the same Tennessee program we saw struggling through the 2010s. There’s belief now. There’s consistency. There’s confidence. This team, this coaching staff, and this fanbase believe they belong among the best, and that mindset is dangerous.”
That mindset has been reflected in recruiting, development, and performance. Tennessee has invested heavily in facilities, player support, and NIL opportunities — all crucial pieces of the modern college football puzzle. The university and its athletic department have signaled to the college football world that they are serious about competing at the highest level.
For Tennessee fans, hearing Finebaum’s endorsement is a validation of what they’ve seen building for the last few years. The drought from national title contention — and even from serious Playoff discussion — has been painful for a program with such rich tradition. The 1998 national title team still looms large in the memories of Volunteers fans, but until recently, the path back to national relevance looked murky.
Now, though, the pieces seem to be coming together. The 2024 season saw the Vols remain competitive, and while they fell short of a Playoff bid, they maintained a strong trajectory. With a year of experience under Iamaleava’s belt, more maturity across the offensive line, and a defense that continues to take steps forward, Tennessee enters 2025 with both promise and expectation.
One area that has seen notable improvement is defense — a key element that held the team back in past years. While Tennessee’s offense under Heupel has rarely been a concern, the defense had been a liability. In 2024, however, the defense showed real improvement under defensive coordinator Tim Banks. Increased depth on the defensive line, faster linebacker play, and a secondary that’s grown more disciplined have made this unit much more formidable.
In an expanded Playoff, a team doesn’t have to be perfect to get in — they just have to be consistently strong and capable of competing with the top-tier programs. Tennessee’s blend of offensive explosiveness and improving defense may be just the recipe needed.
Finebaum also noted that the SEC’s strength can work in Tennessee’s favor. “In a 12-team format, SEC teams that finish even third or fourth in the standings — assuming strong overall resumes — will be seriously considered. That’s where Tennessee fits in perfectly. If they win 10 or 11 games, with a big win over a team like Alabama or Georgia, that could be all they need.”
It’s worth acknowledging, however, that expectations alone do not equate to success. Tennessee will still have to earn their way in — and the road is filled with obstacles. Alabama, LSU, Georgia, Texas, and now even Oklahoma all reside in the same league. There is no such thing as a weak SEC slate. Injuries, poor performances, or a single upset could derail a season. But for once, Tennessee isn’t being talked about as a longshot — they’re being seen as a legitimate threat.
This shift in narrative is crucial. The psychological impact of being viewed as a Playoff team can influence player confidence, recruiting momentum, and national perception. The Vols are no longer playing catch-up — they’re a step away from national contention.
For Finebaum to publicly pick Tennessee — and not a more familiar name like LSU, Ole Miss, or even Texas A&M — is significant. He’s seen the highs and lows of SEC football more closely than most analysts. When he speaks, people listen. And his prediction could be just the spark Tennessee needs heading into what could be a historic season.
Should the Vols break through in 2025 and finally end their Playoff drought, it would mark a triumphant return to the national stage for a program that has been clawing its way back for years. For Heupel, it would cement his status as one of the top coaches in college football. For the players, it would validate years of hard work and belief. And for the fanbase — the heart of Rocky Top — it would be a dream realized after years of heartbreak and rebuilding.
The road to the College Football Playoff is never easy, especially in the SEC. But with the expanded format, a rising roster, elite quarterback talent, and the endorsement of the voice of the conference himself, the Tennessee Volunteers have everything they need to make the leap.
Paul Finebaum’s prediction may have raised some eyebrows, but come December 2025, don’t be surprised if the Vols are right where he said they’d be — in the College Football Playoff, ending a drought that has lasted far too long.
