Paul Finebaum Issues Bold Guarantee: Texas Longhorns Will Make the College Football Playoff and Shake Up the SEC Landscape

Paul Finebaum Issues Bold Guarantee: Texas Longhorns Will Make the College Football Playoff and Shake Up the SEC Landscape

Paul Finebaum has never shied away from bold predictions, especially when it comes to the heavyweights of college football. This time, his eyes are fixed on the Texas Longhorns. In a recent appearance on ESPN, the seasoned college football analyst didn’t mince words—he issued a direct and confident guarantee: the Texas Longhorns will not only contend for the College Football Playoff in 2025 but will ultimately earn a spot in the final four. That proclamation has sparked conversation, debate, and even some skepticism, but Finebaum’s track record of calling major shifts in the sport means his words carry real weight.

This guarantee doesn’t come out of nowhere. The Longhorns are coming off a resurgent season that saw them reach the College Football Playoff for the first time since its inception. Head coach Steve Sarkisian has steadily rebuilt the program with patience, calculated recruiting, and an elite coaching staff. But it’s not just about momentum. According to Finebaum, Texas has everything it takes—from roster depth to leadership to SEC-ready toughness—to break through and shake up the power balance in the sport.

One of the key points Finebaum emphasized is Texas’s transition into the Southeastern Conference. This year marks the Longhorns’ full integration into the SEC, which many believe is the deepest and most competitive league in college football. The move has not come without criticism, but Finebaum sees it as a massive advantage rather than a hurdle. “People talk about how tough the SEC is,” he said. “But Texas has been preparing for this moment for years. They’re not walking into the SEC—they’re sprinting.”

This confidence is rooted in what Texas showed last season. The Longhorns didn’t just win—they dominated. Their road win over Alabama in Tuscaloosa last September sent shockwaves through the sport. That game became a defining moment, proving they could hang with the SEC’s best. They finished the season with an 11-1 regular-season record and clinched the Big 12 Championship before making the playoff field. Though they fell short of the national title, their performance left no doubt: Texas is back.

Now, Finebaum is betting big that the Longhorns aren’t just back—they’re primed to ascend even further. With quarterback Quinn Ewers returning for another season, along with a stable of talented skill players and a defense that held its own against elite competition, Texas is poised to build on that success. Ewers, in particular, has matured into a commanding presence on the field, with improved accuracy, decision-making, and poise under pressure.

Add to that an offensive line anchored by multiple future NFL Draft picks, a wide receiver corps led by breakout stars like Johntay Cook II, and a defensive unit that’s fast, physical, and aggressive—there’s plenty to back up Finebaum’s assertion. Even the special teams, often overlooked in college football playoff runs, are solid and consistent.

Recruiting has also played a huge role in Texas’s resurgence. Sarkisian and his staff have assembled top-10 classes for three consecutive years, bringing in elite prospects who can contribute immediately. The Longhorns are no longer just about potential—they’re about production. That kind of talent pipeline ensures not only success this year but sustainability going forward.

Finebaum also pointed out the broader implications of Texas succeeding in the SEC. “If Texas makes the playoff again, they’re not just proving themselves—they’re reshaping the SEC hierarchy,” he explained. Historically, the conference has been dominated by Alabama, Georgia, and LSU. But with Texas rising and Oklahoma also joining the league, the dynamics are shifting. A strong Longhorns team challenges the status quo and forces the traditional powers to adapt or fall behind.

Some critics, however, aren’t sold on Texas just yet. They point to the fact that one great season doesn’t erase a decade of underachievement. Before Sarkisian, Texas had cycled through multiple head coaches, none of whom could return the program to its former glory. And the SEC gauntlet—where Texas will face programs like LSU, Georgia, and Alabama regularly—poses week-to-week challenges that few teams are truly prepared for.

Still, Finebaum remains unfazed. “This is a different Texas team,” he said. “They’ve got the toughness. They’ve got the depth. They’ve got the coach. They’ve got the quarterback. That’s the recipe.”

There’s also the matter of schedule. Texas’s 2025 slate includes key matchups that will test their mettle early and often. But with high-risk games come high rewards. If the Longhorns can navigate their SEC schedule with only one loss—or even go undefeated—there’s virtually no scenario in which they miss the playoff. In fact, many analysts believe a strong showing in the SEC gives Texas more margin for error than they had in the Big 12. The strength of schedule will work in their favor, not against them.

Finebaum’s guarantee also aligns with what oddsmakers and analysts are beginning to see in preseason projections. Many betting markets have Texas as one of the top five favorites to win the national championship, ahead of traditional powers like Clemson, Michigan, and Penn State. The program is not just being hyped—it’s being respected.

Texas’s leadership behind the scenes deserves credit as well. Athletic director Chris Del Conte has made calculated moves to modernize the athletic department and provide resources that rival those of the top SEC programs. Facilities, support staff, and NIL infrastructure are all at an elite level. That investment is paying off in both recruiting and results.

If Finebaum’s prediction holds true, the ripple effect could be massive. Texas making back-to-back playoff appearances in their first two years of SEC membership would be a seismic statement. It would validate the program’s long-term strategy and send a clear message: the Longhorns are not just passengers in the SEC—they’re future drivers.

And for Sarkisian, a playoff berth could solidify his place among the elite coaches in college football. Once considered just a brilliant offensive mind, Sark has grown into a complete head coach capable of managing egos, developing talent, and winning big games. A national title run—or even a title game appearance—would put him in the same conversation as Kirby Smart, Brian Kelly, and yes, even Nick Saban.

Of course, guarantees in college football are always risky. Injuries, unexpected losses, and off-field distractions can derail even the most promising seasons. But Finebaum is known for calling his shots, and his prediction about the Longhorns feels grounded in something more than hot takes—it’s rooted in trajectory, evidence, and momentum.

In closing, Paul Finebaum’s bold guarantee for Texas to make the College Football Playoff isn’t just media bluster. It’s a statement that reflects the current state of a rapidly evolving college football landscape. The Longhorns are no longer a program clinging to history. They’re building a future, one win at a time, and if everything clicks this fall, Finebaum just might look like a genius once again.

Texas fans are used to hearing “We’re back.” But this time, with Finebaum’s guarantee adding fuel to the fire, they might finally get to say it and mean it.