Phil Steele Predicts Ohio State Will Fall Short of Big Ten Title in 2025, Naming This Surging Rival as Their Biggest Obstacle
Each summer, college football fans eagerly await the release of Phil Steele’s annual preview magazine — a publication so comprehensive and respected that even coaches and insiders rely on its insight. Known for his deep dives, statistical precision, and often prescient predictions, Steele has once again delivered his take on the 2025 college football season. But this year, one of his boldest projections has turned heads across the nation: Phil Steele does not believe Ohio State will win the Big Ten.
That’s right. Despite their consistently loaded roster, perennial top-10 finishes, and future NFL talent across both sides of the ball, Steele is picking against the Buckeyes in 2025. And while Ohio State fans may be used to the occasional contrarian take, this one hits different — because Steele isn’t suggesting a major drop-off or chaos in Columbus. Instead, he believes there’s one clear and rising team ready to stand in Ohio State’s way.
That team? The Oregon Ducks.
Yes, according to Steele, it’s not Michigan, Penn State, USC, or Wisconsin that poses the greatest threat to Ohio State’s Big Ten title hopes. It’s Dan Lanning’s Oregon Ducks — a team that hasn’t even played a single Big Ten game yet but has quickly become a national force under the former Georgia defensive coordinator.
Why Oregon? Steele’s reasoning is grounded in several compelling factors, all of which suggest the Ducks may be peaking at just the right time to derail Ohio State’s 2025 championship dreams.
First and foremost, Oregon’s roster is stacked. The Ducks return nearly all of their key contributors on both sides of the ball, and perhaps more importantly, they’ve crushed the transfer portal. Lanning and his staff have built one of the most complete, balanced rosters in the country — one that can compete physically with the likes of Ohio State, Michigan, and Georgia.
Quarterback Dante Moore, a former five-star and now seasoned starter, leads an offense that’s explosive, well-coached, and dynamic. With a backfield that features multiple home-run threats, a receiving corps loaded with speed and size, and one of the best offensive lines in the conference, Oregon doesn’t just pose a challenge to Ohio State — they may be the only team in the Big Ten with enough firepower and toughness to beat them in a playoff-style setting.
Defensively, Oregon is even more dangerous. Lanning has instilled a fast, physical, SEC-style defensive culture in Eugene. Their front seven is elite, led by future first-round edge rushers and inside linebackers who can cover, blitz, and stuff the run. The secondary, long a weakness in the Pac-12 days, is now one of the deepest in the conference.
Phil Steele believes Oregon’s complete team — along with a schedule that lines up favorably — gives them the inside track to the Big Ten Championship Game and, ultimately, the title.
For Ohio State, that would be a crushing blow. Coming off three consecutive losses to Michigan and with pressure mounting on head coach Ryan Day to deliver a title, 2025 was supposed to be the year. The year the Buckeyes get back to their Big Ten throne. The year they reassert national dominance.
And yet, Steele doesn’t buy it.
Why not? For all of Ohio State’s undeniable talent, there are lingering concerns.
For one, the quarterback situation remains unsettled. While Devin Brown enters the year as the expected starter, he has yet to prove he can be the guy in a playoff-level environment. The Buckeyes have elite receivers — headlined by Jeremiah Smith and Brandon Inniss — but they need a field general who can consistently deliver under pressure.
The offensive line, though experienced, struggled in key moments last season, particularly in short-yardage and red-zone situations. Without improved consistency up front, Ohio State’s high-octane offense may once again fall short against top-tier defenses.
Defensively, Jim Knowles has made great strides since arriving in Columbus, but the Buckeyes have still shown vulnerability against mobile quarterbacks and in high-leverage moments. Steele wonders if, even with improved personnel, Ohio State can stop an Oregon team that operates at such a high tempo with so much schematic variety.
Another key issue? The schedule. Ohio State’s 2025 regular-season slate is brutal. They face road trips to Penn State and Wisconsin, host Michigan in the season finale, and are likely to meet a top-five Oregon team in the Big Ten title game — assuming both teams navigate the schedule successfully.
In contrast, Oregon benefits from a more manageable path. Their toughest road game is against USC, and they avoid both Michigan and Penn State in the regular season. If the Ducks can get to Indianapolis relatively healthy and with momentum, they’ll have a very real shot at claiming the Big Ten crown in their first year in the conference.
That’s exactly the scenario Steele envisions. And it’s not just about talent — it’s about timing.
Oregon is ascending at a moment when Ohio State is under maximum pressure. The Buckeyes don’t just want to win — they have to win. Another year without a Big Ten title, and questions about Ryan Day’s job security, program direction, and recruiting momentum will explode.
Meanwhile, Oregon is playing with house money. The Ducks are the shiny new arrival, eager to prove they belong but free of the weight that burdens more established Big Ten giants. That kind of freedom — paired with their talent and coaching — makes them dangerous.
If Steele is right, the implications for the Big Ten are seismic.
Ohio State, long seen as the conference’s top dog, would suddenly find itself in a legitimate three- or even four-way power struggle. Michigan, Oregon, and even Penn State would all have a claim to supremacy. That kind of parity is great for the conference’s national appeal but potentially devastating for Ohio State’s aura of dominance.
To be fair, Steele doesn’t suggest Ohio State is in decline — only that the current landscape is more competitive than ever, and the margin for error is razor-thin. A missed field goal, a blown coverage, or a poorly timed turnover could be all it takes for the Buckeyes to fall short again.
And unlike in past years, when one loss still allowed room for recovery in the playoff picture, the expanded Big Ten now has fewer guarantees. With so many high-caliber teams vying for position, one stumble could mean losing not just the conference but playoff seeding — or even a berth altogether.
What’s undeniable is that Phil Steele’s take will spark debate. Ohio State fans, proud and passionate, will view it as a challenge. And it may be exactly the kind of fuel Ryan Day’s team needs as they prepare for a critical season.
But it also reflects a growing reality: The Big Ten is no longer Ohio State’s kingdom alone.
With Oregon’s emergence, Michigan’s resurgence, and Penn State’s consistency, the conference is now a battleground — and the Buckeyes will have to fight harder than ever to stay on top.
In a sport that changes quickly and punishes complacency, nothing is guaranteed — not even for a program as mighty as Ohio State.
If Phil Steele is right, and Oregon claims the Big Ten in their inaugural season, it would mark a changing of the guard. And for Ohio State, it would signal a need to evolve or risk falling behind.
