Phil Steele’s 2025 College Football Outlook Sees South Carolina Fading Behind SEC Rivals in a Tough Transition Year
Phil Steele is one of the most respected voices in college football analysis, and when he releases his annual predictions and power rankings, fans and programs alike pay close attention. For the South Carolina Gamecocks, Steele’s 2025 forecast brings a dose of sobering reality rather than optimistic hype. Despite some fan enthusiasm and hope for upward momentum under head coach Shane Beamer, Steele’s projections reflect a program in transition, battling internal inconsistencies, stiff SEC competition, and unproven depth across key positions. His evaluation doesn’t necessarily write off the Gamecocks entirely, but it strongly tempers expectations and paints a picture of a team likely to fall short of bowl eligibility in the coming season.
Steele’s outlook is grounded in meticulous data collection. He accounts for returning starters, strength of schedule, roster turnover, talent evaluations, coaching experience, and historical trends. For South Carolina, several of those categories raise red flags. First and foremost, the Gamecocks are coming off a disappointing 2024 campaign that exposed depth issues and a lack of cohesion on both sides of the ball. Injuries, inconsistent quarterback play, and a porous offensive line were major culprits. Steele notes that while some of those issues can be improved through development and transfer additions, they won’t be solved overnight—and they could be compounded by the rigorous SEC East slate.
One of Steele’s most striking points is his skepticism about South Carolina’s quarterback situation. With Spencer Rattler now in the NFL, the Gamecocks are searching for a new leader under center. Redshirt sophomore LaNorris Sellers is considered a frontrunner, but Steele is cautious about projecting a breakout. Sellers has raw talent—arm strength, mobility, and charisma—but he’s only thrown a limited number of passes at the college level. Steele’s analysis emphasizes that quarterback inexperience is one of the most significant indicators of a team’s vulnerability, especially in high-stakes conference games. For South Carolina, whose offensive line surrendered more than 40 sacks in 2024, throwing a young quarterback into the fire without significant improvement in pass protection could be disastrous.
The offensive line is another key weakness in Steele’s projection. South Carolina has struggled mightily in recent years to establish a dominant front five. Injuries and ineffective play plagued the unit last season, and while Beamer and his staff have added some promising transfers, Steele doesn’t believe it’s enough to dramatically elevate the group in 2025. In the SEC, where defensive lines are elite across the board, an underperforming offensive line can derail an entire season. Steele projects the Gamecocks to finish in the bottom third of the SEC in rushing offense and pass protection unless several players exceed expectations.
On defense, Steele sees slightly more promise, but still not enough to swing games. The linebacker group is seen as a strength, with returning tacklers and leaders capable of holding their own against the run. However, the secondary is young and largely untested, particularly at cornerback, where South Carolina must replace two veteran starters. Steele’s analysis shows that teams with weak secondaries are frequently exploited by top-tier SEC quarterbacks—of which there are plenty. Moreover, the Gamecocks’ pass rush, which ranked near the bottom of the league in sacks last season, hasn’t shown enough signs of growth to consistently disrupt opposing offenses. Without pressure up front, Steele believes the secondary will be overmatched.
Another key factor in Steele’s lowered expectations is South Carolina’s schedule. Few programs face a tougher 2025 road. The Gamecocks are slated to face Alabama, Georgia, Texas, and Tennessee—teams that are either perennial College Football Playoff contenders or loaded with blue-chip talent. Even games against Mississippi State, Kentucky, and Florida will be challenging, especially on the road. Steele ranks South Carolina’s schedule among the five hardest in the nation for 2025, making even a six-win season an uphill battle.
Then there’s the broader context of the SEC landscape. With Texas and Oklahoma now fully integrated into the conference, the SEC is deeper than ever before. Teams that might have expected to hover around the middle of the pack in previous years now find themselves battling for relevance in a bloated power structure. South Carolina, under Beamer, has had some high points—including upset wins over Tennessee and Clemson in recent years—but consistency has eluded the program. Steele’s analysis suggests that while Beamer has done a good job energizing the fanbase and recruiting reasonably well, the talent gap between South Carolina and the top-tier SEC programs remains significant.
Steele also calls attention to the Gamecocks’ lack of NFL-caliber star power on the current roster. While there are a few intriguing prospects, including wide receiver Nyck Harbor—a dynamic athlete with Olympic-level speed—there’s no dominant game-changer on either side of the ball who can single-handedly carry the team. Programs like Georgia, LSU, and Alabama routinely roll out multiple All-American candidates, and even teams like Ole Miss and Missouri have elite skill position players capable of tilting games. South Carolina’s current roster composition lacks that kind of explosive threat, at least on a consistent basis.
The special teams unit, typically a bright spot under Beamer thanks to his father Frank Beamer’s influence, is expected to be solid, but not spectacular. Steele gives the edge to South Carolina in the field position battle against some of their peers, but he notes that in close games, that alone isn’t enough. Without a consistent offense or top-25-caliber defense, special teams excellence can only do so much.
Recruiting is another area where Steele sees cause for caution. While South Carolina’s 2025 class is shaping up to be respectable—ranked in the top 25 nationally—it lags behind the top programs in the SEC. Georgia, Alabama, and LSU continue to dominate the recruiting trail, while even newer powers like Texas and Oklahoma are pushing into elite territory. South Carolina is landing good players, but not the elite difference-makers needed to truly compete for division titles. Until Beamer and his staff can string together multiple top-10 recruiting classes, the Gamecocks are likely to hover in the middle or lower tier of the conference.
To be clear, Steele isn’t suggesting that South Carolina is doomed or that Beamer’s tenure is a failure. On the contrary, he acknowledges the challenges of building a competitive program in the toughest conference in college football. He sees Beamer as a capable leader who has instilled a positive culture and improved the overall energy around the team. But in 2025, the obstacles are simply too numerous: a brutal schedule, key personnel losses, and unproven replacements across several units.
What could change Steele’s outlook during the season? He notes that if Sellers takes a major leap forward at quarterback and the offensive line gels unexpectedly, South Carolina could exceed expectations. A breakout year from Harbor or one of the transfer receivers could also shift the offensive trajectory. On defense, if the pass rush improves and the young secondary matures quickly, the Gamecocks might surprise a few people. But Steele frames those scenarios as outliers, not likely outcomes.
In sum, Steele’s evaluation is rooted in realism. College football fans love hope and potential, and South Carolina has plenty of both. But hope doesn’t win games in the SEC. Execution, depth, experience, and elite talent win games—and in 2025, Steele doesn’t believe South Carolina has enough of those traits to thrive. He pegs them as a five-win team, with a narrow path to six if things break right. That puts them just outside the bowl picture and well below the aspirations of fans who want to see the Gamecocks take the next step.
For South Carolina, Steele’s lowered expectations aren’t a death sentence—they’re a challenge. If the Gamecocks can prove him wrong, it would mark a major statement for Beamer’s program. But for now, the consensus from one of college football’s most trusted analysts is clear: 2025 is shaping up as a rebuilding year in Columbia, and expectations should be managed accordingly.