Texas Longhorns’ 2025 Season Could Swing Wildly Between College Football Playoff Glory and a Brutal Reality Check

Chris Phillips didn’t mince words when laying out the 2025 best- and worst-case scenarios for the Texas Longhorns. After years of whispers, expectations, and realignment-fueled anticipation, the Horns are no longer peering over the SEC fence—they’re inside, and the lights are as bright as ever. This isn’t the Big 12 anymore. The opponents are tougher, the scrutiny is sharper, and the margin for error has all but evaporated.

Texas, with a roster loaded with talent, NFL-ready prospects, and high-profile transfers, is positioned for a defining year. But depending on how a few variables shake out—quarterback play, injuries, coaching decisions, and how quickly the team adapts to the rigors of the SEC—Phillips sees two vastly different versions of what this season might become. One has Texas fans storming into December with playoff hopes and trophy dreams. The other is filled with regret, questions, and the kind of scrutiny only Austin can deliver.

Best-Case Scenario: A True SEC Statement

In the dream script, Quinn Ewers looks like a seasoned NFL prototype. He not only stays healthy for the entire year but flourishes behind a reloaded offensive line that finally lives up to its recruiting billing. Ewers’ arm talent is unquestioned, but in this scenario, his decision-making and consistency take the next step. He cuts down turnovers, maintains composure in hostile environments like Baton Rouge and Athens, and becomes a Heisman finalist by November.

Backing him is one of the deepest wide receiver corps in the country. Isaiah Bond—flipped from Alabama—and Johntay Cook II turn into matchup nightmares. Bond stretches the field while Cook eats underneath and on the perimeter. The chemistry Ewers builds with his playmakers becomes surgical, and defenses have no answer when Texas goes up-tempo.

Then there’s the defense. In Phillips’ ideal version of 2025, the Longhorns’ front seven leads the SEC in sacks. The transfer portal additions on the defensive line—specifically those from blue-chip SEC programs—blend seamlessly into Pete Kwiatkowski’s scheme. Linebackers like Anthony Hill Jr. become stars, while the secondary finally plays up to its five-star pedigree. The result? A top-10 national ranking in total defense and a swagger that’s been missing in Austin for years.

Texas wins early against Michigan at home, setting the tone with a physical, trench-dominating performance. They follow it up with road wins over Arkansas and Mississippi State, and most importantly, they shock Georgia between the hedges in a game that turns into the national coming-out party for Steve Sarkisian’s program.

By season’s end, Texas finishes 11-1, with its only loss being a close battle in Tuscaloosa. They’re SEC title game-bound, facing LSU or Georgia in a rematch, and this time, they finish the job. That 12th win locks them into the College Football Playoff. Sark is celebrated, Ewers is a top-5 NFL Draft pick, and the Longhorns have officially arrived as a perennial SEC power.

Worst-Case Scenario: Crumbling Under Pressure

But there’s a darker side to this coin. And in Phillips’ worst-case projection, it all starts with Ewers—specifically, an early-season injury. Without him, the quarterback room is suddenly an untested mix of talent and nerves. Arch Manning, despite the name and the pedigree, isn’t ready for SEC defenses, and Maalik Murphy transfers before the season begins due to a lack of reps. In this alternate reality, the offense stalls, failing to score more than 20 points in back-to-back losses to Michigan and Arkansas.

Even worse, the offensive line regresses. The interior line is inconsistent, giving up far too much pressure and failing to open lanes for the running backs. The running game sputters, and Texas becomes one-dimensional. With no reliable way to control the tempo, the Horns are constantly playing from behind.

Defensively, injuries hit hard and fast. Hill misses a stretch in October, and the defensive front looks soft against SEC rushing attacks. Georgia runs wild. So does LSU. The tackling becomes sloppy, the communication breaks down in the secondary, and what was supposed to be a strength turns into a liability. The worst-case result is a defense ranked outside the top 50 nationally in scoring and yards allowed.

Sarkisian, meanwhile, starts to feel the heat. His play-calling becomes conservative, clock management becomes a talking point, and his trust in Manning erodes the team’s confidence. The noise grows louder with every loss, especially after a three-game losing streak midseason derails any remaining hope of playoff contention.

By the end of the year, Texas is limping toward bowl eligibility. They finish 6-6, dropping games to Georgia, Alabama, LSU, Arkansas, Texas A&M, and Michigan. They go winless against ranked opponents and 2-6 in the SEC. Critics question if Sark is the right fit long-term, and speculation about a coaching change becomes unavoidable. The season ends in a low-tier bowl game—if they even accept the invitation.

Worse yet, top recruits begin to waver. The 2026 class sees a few high-profile decommitments, and the boosters—who helped finance NIL deals and recruiting operations—grow increasingly restless. The SEC move, which was supposed to signal Texas’ rebirth, instead feels like an overreach. They don’t belong. Not yet.

The Most Likely Reality Lies Somewhere in Between

Phillips is clear that these are extremes. He doesn’t expect Texas to go 12-1 or 6-6. But what makes the 2025 season so compelling is that both of those outcomes are on the table. This is the first year where Texas will be judged against the very best week in and week out. There are no more Big 12 soft landings. No Kansas or Iowa State to regain momentum. Every game is a proving ground.

And unlike years past, there’s real national attention. The roster is full of NFL talent. The media spotlight will be relentless. If Texas starts 4-0, they might be ranked No. 1. If they start 2-2, the questions will be immediate and unforgiving.

So what will make the difference?

According to Phillips, it all hinges on Ewers’ health, Sarkisian’s game management, and how quickly the defense can gel under pressure. If Texas stays healthy and Sark finally proves he can win big games when it counts, they’ll be playing in January. If not, the regression narrative will be deafening.

Either way, the Longhorns are finally where they’ve long wanted to be—center stage, no more excuses. The rest of the SEC is waiting. And the margin between greatness and disaster is thinner than ever.