The Tennessee Vols receive a harsh reality check from a college baseball expert that might have significant postseason repercussions.

The Tennessee Volunteers baseball team, long viewed as one of the most dynamic and dangerous squads in the SEC, has been hit with a stinging dose of reality—courtesy of a respected college baseball expert whose words have reverberated through the walls of Lindsey Nelson Stadium.

As the Vols eye another deep run in the NCAA postseason, a troubling pattern has emerged: inconsistency against top-tier opponents, shaky bullpen management, and a lack of situational hitting. And now, one veteran analyst is raising red flags that may very well forecast a disappointing ending to a once-promising season.

Coming into the 2025 season, Tennessee was billed as a College World Series favorite. After all, head coach Tony Vitello had assembled a roster brimming with talent: power hitters capable of clearing fences with ease, a deep rotation led by projected high MLB Draft picks, and an experienced bullpen. Preseason polls placed the Vols in the top five nationally, and some even declared them the team to beat in the Southeastern Conference.

But now, in mid-May, those once-lofty expectations have been tempered by harsh realities.

D1Baseball’s Kendall Rogers—widely regarded as one of the most respected voices in college baseball—didn’t mince words during a recent appearance on the D1Baseball Weekly Roundup. When asked about Tennessee’s postseason prospects, Rogers delivered a message that cut through the noise:

“Tennessee has the talent, yes. But what we’re seeing right now is a team that folds under pressure in key games. You can’t lose three out of four SEC series in the back half of the schedule and still be considered an Omaha lock. This team is not mentally tough at the moment.”

Rogers’s comments zeroed in on the Vols’ failure to close out close games, particularly on the road against quality opposition. He pointed to their recent series losses to Arkansas, Florida, and Texas A&M—series in which the Vols either led or were within striking distance late in games, only to unravel under pressure.

“If Tennessee doesn’t clean this up, they could be headed for an early regional exit,” Rogers added.

The numbers back up Rogers’s claims. Over their last 12 conference games, the Vols are 4-8. During that stretch, they’ve allowed an average of 6.3 runs per game while committing a staggering 14 defensive errors—an uncharacteristic collapse for a team that once prided itself on defensive efficiency.

Their bullpen ERA during that span? A bloated 6.88.

Star closer Carson Jenkins, who started the season strong with six saves in his first eight appearances, has blown three of his last five save opportunities. Even more troubling, hitters are now batting .295 against him in May—compared to just .187 in March.

Equally damning is the Vols’ performance at the plate in pressure-packed moments. Over their last five losses, Tennessee hitters are a combined 7-for-43 (.162) with runners in scoring position. Cleanup hitter Luke Stinson, who leads the team in home runs, has just one RBI in his last 10 games.

While the Vols are still among the SEC leaders in home runs, their reliance on the long ball has come at a cost: when power dries up, so does run production. It’s a feast-or-famine approach that doesn’t typically translate well to postseason success.

Following Rogers’s critical assessment, Tony Vitello addressed the media and didn’t shy away from the concerns raised.

“We haven’t played our best baseball, no doubt,” Vitello admitted. “Our standard is higher, and we haven’t met it lately. But I also know what this team is capable of. There’s still time to tighten things up before the real season begins.”

Vitello also hinted at potential lineup and bullpen changes ahead of the final SEC series and the SEC Tournament.

“We’re not going to be married to anything right now,” he said. “If someone gives us a better chance to win in a tough spot, they’re going to get their opportunity.”

The upcoming SEC Tournament in Hoover may now hold more weight for Tennessee than previously expected. Once thought to be locked into a top-eight national seed, the Vols are suddenly in danger of slipping to a No. 2 seed in their regional—a scenario that could result in a far tougher postseason draw.

Should they exit early in Hoover, the selection committee could penalize them for their late-season swoon, especially if they finish below .500 in conference play.

A strong showing, on the other hand, could help erase recent doubts and restore faith in the team’s potential to reach Omaha.

One of the most pointed criticisms from Rogers involved the team’s mental toughness.

“In baseball, you need guys who want the ball in the ninth inning. Right now, Tennessee looks like a team that hopes someone else steps up. That’s not the attitude of a champion.”

Former Vols star and MLB prospect Jordan Beck weighed in on social media, offering his support while also echoing the sentiment.

“Love my guys, but someone’s gotta lead the charge,” Beck posted on X (formerly Twitter). “Tennessee Baseball is built different—time to show it.”

Veteran players like Christian Moore and Cal Stark will be expected to anchor that leadership shift heading into the postseason.

Following the criticism, several players spoke to the media about the current state of the team.

Cal Stark, the team’s emotional leader behind the plate, didn’t dodge the issue:

“We hear the noise. And to be honest, some of it’s fair. We haven’t played to our potential, especially in clutch moments. But this group isn’t going to roll over. We’re pissed off. And we’ve got something to prove.”

Pitcher Drew Beam, a potential Friday night starter in the NCAA Tournament, agreed.

“The good thing about baseball is that it gives you a chance to rewrite your story. We’re not going to let this slide define our season.”

If the Vols continue their downward spiral, the postseason picture could dramatically shift. Here’s what’s at stake:

• Hosting a Regional: Still likely, but far from guaranteed if they fall flat in Hoover.
• National Seed: In serious jeopardy; a strong SEC Tournament performance is now a must.
• Road to Omaha: If forced to go on the road for a Super Regional, their odds of advancing decrease significantly.

Should Tennessee fail to advance past the regionals, the fallout could be significant—not just for the current roster, but for recruiting momentum and future expectations.

The final regular-season series and conference tournament now serve as a crucible. For Tony Vitello, it’s a chance to solidify his legacy—not just as a recruiter of talent, but as a leader who can steer a ship in choppy waters.

For the players, it’s a final opportunity to silence the critics and transform adversity into a galvanizing force.

College baseball is a game of streaks, yes—but also of identity. And right now, the Vols are in search of theirs.

If they find it in time, the expert warnings could serve as the wake-up call that propelled them to glory.

If not, Kendall Rogers’s prophecy may go down as the one that foretold the collapse of Tennessee’s 2025 baseball dream.