Three Years Later, How One Bold Notre Dame Football Prediction Fell Apart in Unexpected and Unforgettable Ways
In the world of college football, predictions are a way of life. Fans and analysts alike make bold claims every offseason, dreaming up the most optimistic — or sometimes pessimistic — possibilities for their favorite programs. In 2022, one such prediction captured the attention of Fighting Irish fans across the country: that Notre Dame football, under its then-brand new head coach Marcus Freeman, would win a national title within three years. Now, with the 2025 season on the horizon, that prediction stands not only unfulfilled, but far from reality. As the Irish continue building under Freeman’s watch, it’s time to revisit that prediction and examine how things went off track, what was overlooked, and how the team has evolved since.
Back in December 2021, when Freeman was named head coach following Brian Kelly’s abrupt departure for LSU, the optimism in South Bend was palpable. Freeman, a former star linebacker at Ohio State and the team’s defensive coordinator, was viewed as a rising star in the coaching ranks. His youth, energy, and strong rapport with players and recruits made him a fan favorite even before he coached his first game. The prediction that Notre Dame would win a national championship in three years didn’t seem all that far-fetched — at least not to those who believed Freeman would be the spark to ignite a new golden era.
But as is so often the case in college football, the road to greatness proved more complicated than expected. The 2022 season began with a gut-punch of a loss to Ohio State, followed by a shocking upset at the hands of Marshall. A 9–4 record by year’s end, capped by a thrilling Gator Bowl win over South Carolina, tempered expectations somewhat, but there was still hope. Freeman had weathered early turbulence, and the feeling was that the foundation for success was being laid.
In 2023, the Irish took another step forward — but not a leap. Despite an impressive blowout win over USC and strong performances from quarterback Sam Hartman, Notre Dame still faltered against elite competition. Losses to Ohio State (again), Louisville, and Clemson highlighted the inconsistencies that plagued the team. Finishing 10–3, the Irish showed resilience and flashes of brilliance, but the dream of a playoff run remained elusive. The national title prediction had one more year to come true, and while progress was evident, the leap to the sport’s pinnacle seemed increasingly unlikely.
Now, entering the 2025 season, that prediction has officially expired. Notre Dame did not win a national championship in the three-year window some had so confidently envisioned. But rather than simply label it a failed prophecy, it’s more instructive to look at the broader context — and to understand why it fell short.
The first major factor: quarterback play. Notre Dame has long struggled to develop elite QBs, and the Freeman era has been no different. While Hartman provided stability in 2023, the Irish have lacked the kind of dynamic, game-changing quarterback that other top-tier programs routinely produce. Without that elite presence under center, competing with the likes of Georgia, Alabama, Michigan, and Ohio State has remained a tall order. Recruiting and developing that kind of player takes time, and while Freeman has made strides — particularly in targeting blue-chip recruits — the results haven’t materialized fast enough.
The second challenge has been depth across the roster. While Notre Dame routinely fields strong starting units, the lack of elite depth has shown in critical games. Injuries, fatigue, and talent gaps have too often turned winnable contests into frustrating losses. Freeman and his staff have attacked this issue aggressively, particularly in the transfer portal and on the recruiting trail, but again, change takes time.
Another overlooked element in the original prediction was the transition involved in becoming a head coach for the first time. Freeman stepped into one of the most demanding jobs in college football with zero head coaching experience. While he brought passion, energy, and intelligence to the job, the learning curve was steep. Game management, staff decisions, and the pressures of leading a blue-blood program all presented early challenges. His growth has been evident, but expecting immediate greatness was perhaps unfair to begin with.
Beyond internal factors, the national landscape has also changed. College football is more competitive than ever, with powerhouse programs reloading at an unprecedented rate thanks to NIL and the transfer portal. The expanded playoff system, set to begin in 2025, may make it easier for Notre Dame to reach the postseason — but it also raises the bar for what a national title run requires. Even programs with elite resources and long-standing tradition, like Oklahoma, Texas, or Florida, have found themselves on the outside looking in. The path is narrow, and timing, luck, and development all play massive roles.
Still, to focus only on the failure of a prediction is to miss the bigger picture. Freeman has reshaped Notre Dame football in meaningful ways. The recruiting pipeline is stronger, especially in key states like Texas and California. The staff has stabilized, with talented assistants and a clearer identity on both sides of the ball. The culture within the program is widely praised by players, recruits, and alumni alike. Even without a national championship, Notre Dame has avoided the kind of collapse or drift that has haunted other storied programs.
It’s also worth considering how the definition of success is evolving. While Notre Dame remains obsessed with winning its first national title since 1988, the modern era makes that goal harder than ever. Making the playoff, competing at a high level, and remaining relevant year after year are increasingly the standards by which top programs are judged. In that sense, Freeman’s first three years have been successful, even if they didn’t deliver a ring.
Looking ahead, the program is poised for continued growth. The 2025 roster includes several high-profile recruits from recent classes, and the quarterback room is deeper than it has been in years. If the Irish can capitalize on their recruiting momentum and continue improving in the trenches, the expanded playoff offers a realistic shot at contention. In fact, the next three years may tell a more accurate story of Freeman’s tenure than the first three did.
And that’s the truth about bold predictions — they’re often wrong, but not necessarily useless. They capture a moment in time, reflect a fanbase’s hopes and expectations, and provide a measuring stick for future evaluation. The prediction that Notre Dame would win a title in three years didn’t come true, but it wasn’t ridiculous. It was rooted in real potential, real excitement, and real belief in a young coach who was handed the keys to a legendary program.
Three years later, Marcus Freeman remains the head coach at Notre Dame. He’s faced adversity, learned on the job, and guided the Irish through a turbulent era in college football. While the national title remains elusive, the progress is visible. The talent is improving. The vision is clearer. And perhaps most importantly, the support for Freeman from within the Notre Dame community has not wavered.
The failed prediction serves as a lesson — in patience, in the unpredictability of college football, and in the challenges of rebuilding at the highest level. But it also serves as a reminder of how quickly things can change. A program like Notre Dame, with its resources, tradition, and now a coach gaining valuable experience, is never too far from contention. The national title window may not have opened within three years, but it may be creaking open now.
So the question isn’t whether that 2022 prediction was right or wrong — we know the answer to that. The better question is: will it be right, eventually? Will the promise that inspired it still be fulfilled, just on a longer timeline? In South Bend, hope never fades completely. And with Freeman still at the helm, that hope remains more than just a dream. It remains a plan in progress.
