Way-Too-Early 2025-26 College Basketball Top 25 Rankings: Tracking NBA Draft Withdrawals and Emerging Team Powerhouses
As the dust settles on the 2024-25 college basketball season, eyes are already turning toward the 2025-26 campaign with heightened anticipation. This early ranking is heavily influenced by the evolving landscape shaped by NBA Draft decisions, transfers, recruiting classes, and coaching stability. Every year, the NCAA basketball scene shifts dramatically based on which players opt to enter the draft, which ones return, and how programs reload or build on their current momentum. For 2025-26, this interplay is especially crucial, given the growing trend of early entries and withdrawals from the NBA Draft affecting roster compositions.
The most compelling storyline heading into the 2025-26 season is the uncertainty surrounding NBA Draft declarations and withdrawals. Recent NCAA and NBA collective bargaining agreements have made it easier for underclassmen to test the draft waters and then return to school if they choose. This dynamic adds complexity to predicting team strengths but also injects excitement, as key players can suddenly reappear or disappear on rosters. Programs that can persuade their stars to stay or successfully integrate talented returnees will have a significant edge. Conversely, teams losing multiple NBA-level prospects will need to rely heavily on incoming freshmen and transfers to remain competitive.
At the top of this way-too-early list, perennial powerhouses like Duke, Kentucky, and Kansas remain fixtures. Duke, with its storied recruiting success and often strong player retention, is projected to be formidable again. The Blue Devils’ 2025 recruiting class is among the nation’s best, and if their 2024-25 upperclassmen choose to return instead of turning pro, they will be stacked with talent. Similarly, Kentucky’s ability to reload year after year with one-and-done prospects and high-profile transfers keeps them in the upper echelon. Kansas, with Bill Self’s masterful coaching and steady recruiting, is expected to be a title contender once more, especially if their core players opt to stay rather than pursue the NBA immediately.
Beyond the traditional blue-blood programs, several emerging teams are positioning themselves to climb the rankings in 2025-26. Gonzaga, despite occasional struggles with player retention, continues to recruit elite talent and develop players who can step up quickly. If they keep their top prospects from the previous season, the Bulldogs could contend deeply in the NCAA Tournament again. Similarly, teams like UCLA and Villanova have the coaching and recruiting chops to remain highly competitive, especially if their upperclassmen stay and the incoming freshmen live up to expectations.
The transfer portal continues to be a game-changer in college basketball, and it will play a major role in shaping the 2025-26 rankings. Programs that leverage transfers effectively can offset the loss of NBA-bound players or underclassmen who declare for the draft. This trend rewards coaching staffs with strong reputations and good player development, as well as those able to build a culture attractive to transfers. Some mid-major programs that have capitalized on this strategy could push into the Top 25 if they add multiple experienced transfers with immediate impact potential.
Recruiting classes for 2025 also factor heavily into the forecast. The best classes can vault teams into the national conversation almost overnight. Elite recruits often have the talent to change a program’s trajectory, but how they integrate with existing players and systems is crucial. Programs that combine top-tier freshmen with experienced returnees will be the toughest to beat. Meanwhile, some teams may face a rebuilding year if they lose key players to the draft and do not bring in enough high-impact newcomers or transfers.
The issue of player development and coaching stability cannot be overstated. Programs with consistent, proven coaching staffs tend to have an advantage, as they develop talent more effectively and navigate roster turnover better. Teams undergoing coaching changes heading into 2025-26 face uncertainty that could delay their ability to compete at the highest levels. Conversely, programs that maintain coaching continuity can build on past success and attract recruits and transfers looking for stability.
Looking further down the list, expect to see some surprises. Mid-major programs with sustained success and strong returning cores could break into the Top 25. Schools like Saint Mary’s, Creighton, and San Diego State have built competitive teams capable of challenging traditional powerhouses. Their ability to retain players, plus their skill in the transfer market and recruiting, make them potential sleepers for the 2025-26 season. If their stars return and the incoming talent fits well, these programs could make significant jumps.
Geographical shifts in basketball power also remain an intriguing subplot. The rise of programs in the Southeast, such as Florida State and Miami, continues as these schools invest in facilities and recruiting. The Pac-12, historically strong, is attempting a resurgence with programs like Oregon and Arizona poised to benefit from strong recruiting classes and potential NBA Draft withdrawals. Meanwhile, the Big Ten remains a competitive conference with Michigan State, Purdue, and Indiana trying to consolidate their positions despite losses to the draft.
The 2025-26 season could also be shaped by emerging international players entering college basketball, a growing trend in recent years. Programs that tap into global recruiting pipelines stand to benefit from adding mature, skilled players who can contribute immediately. The international influx adds a layer of unpredictability to rankings but also increases the overall talent pool and competition.
One of the most fascinating elements of projecting the 2025-26 season is the potential impact of rule changes and the evolving relationship between college basketball and the NBA. The NCAA’s embrace of Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) deals has altered the recruiting landscape, providing programs with new tools to attract and retain players. At the same time, the NBA’s draft eligibility rules and developmental league options give players alternatives to college basketball, which can influence who returns and who leaves. This balancing act between college success and professional opportunity will be a defining storyline as programs try to build rosters capable of deep NCAA Tournament runs.
In summary, the way-too-early Top 25 rankings for 2025-26 college basketball must account for numerous variables, with NBA Draft withdrawals and declarations at the forefront. Traditional powerhouses like Duke, Kentucky, and Kansas maintain their dominance, while emerging teams and savvy transfer market participants could shift the balance of power. Recruiting classes, coaching stability, and player development remain critical factors, alongside the increasing impact of NIL and international talent. The ebb and flow of player decisions regarding the draft will be the primary driver of roster strength and thus team rankings. Fans and analysts alike should expect a dynamic, competitive season that rewards programs capable of adapting swiftly to the evolving college basketball environment.
This preview is just the starting point, as the full picture will only clarify once draft declarations and withdrawals conclude, transfers settle, and recruiting classes officially sign. But for now, these 25 teams represent the best guess at which programs will headline the 2025-26 college basketball season — a season poised to be as thrilling and unpredictable as any before it.
