Why the Edmonton Oilers’ list of scratches in the playoffs may surprise
These days, Edmonton Oilers fans have one eye on the hockey game and the other on the injured list.
Some fans believe the club’s long list of players on IR will return before the playoffs completely healthy. Others are offering dire warnings of a quick exit that can safely be laid at the feet of impact players made unavailable due to various maladies.
The injuries could place the entire starting roster into disarray. Here’s a position-by-position look at the Oilers’ possible opening-night roster for the 2025 playoffs:
Goaltender
Calvin Pickard is the de facto starter at this time. The longer incumbent starter Stuart Skinner is out with injury, the more likely we are to see Pickard play Game 1 of the playoffs.
There’s evidence this would be the correct play even if Skinner is healthy. Here are the five-on-five save percentages for each man with league rank since Feb. 1:
I use five-on-five save percentage because the penalty kill involves both skaters and goaltenders defending. The purest way to look at goalies is five-on-five save percentage.
Since Feb. 1, among 38 goaltenders who have played 500-plus minutes in the game state, Pickard ranks No. 10. Skinner is ahead of only Arvid Soderblom of the Chicago Blackhawks and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen of the Buffalo Sabres.
It’s possible coach Kris Knoblauch checks down to run Skinner in the first game of the playoffs, but there’s evidence that starting Pickard is the play.
The third goaltender and current NHL backup is Olivier Rodrigue. He’s unlikely to start unless there’s an emergency. Collin Delia is the AHL veteran who would seem to be the next man up, but he hasn’t played for the Condors since March 22. Bakersfield’s goaltending has been handled by minor-league stopper Brett Brochu in recent games. The youngster has an impressive .928 save percentage and could safely be described as the second best active goalie in the system at this time.
Defence
The major story on defence is Mattias Ekholm and his recovery from injury. In a recent article at The Athletic, Daniel Nugent-Bowman detailed the difficult late winter and early spring for Edmonton’s top-flight defender. Also included in that article is a quote from coach Knoblauch, suggesting the expectation is all injured Oilers, including Ekholm, will return for the postseason: “I think everybody else will be (back) before the regular season’s over.”
This is perhaps the most important piece of information fans can hold on to at this time. Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are the team’s impact forwards, with a healthy Ekholm is vital to the defence. All returning represents a best-case scenario.
Bottom line: Ekholm with Evan Bouchard is the most productive pairing on the roster. It also allows Knoblauch to run a strong second pairing with Darnell Nurse and one of Jake Walman or Brett Kulak. If the coach can afford to run Kulak on the third pairing with one of Ty Emberson or Troy Stecher, the Oilers will have a superior defence to the one that made it to Game 7 of the Stanley Cup final last spring.
Centre
If all Oilers pivots are healthy, it is the strongest position in the game. The health of McDavid has been in question at times this season, as the performance has been below his incredible standards of the past. Despite injury, Draisaitl is having an MVP season.
Looking at isolated outscoring totals at five-on-five, we get a view of exactly what has happened across the long season of 2024-25. To bring things into better view, I’ll run last year’s totals as a comparison.
These are goal shares, by line. The key takeaway here is that even a healthy McDavid has not been able to deliver as in the past. There may be an injury he’s able to play through (beyond the current issue), but something isn’t right in the McDavid solo (without Draisaitl) minutes.
This is important because McDavid and Draisaitl continue to be brilliant together. Knoblauch may want to run that duo with a complementary winger at times during the playoffs.
Bottom line: The Oilers have more elite talent at centre than any team in hockey. Health is the only worry.
Left wing
This position’s deployment in the playoffs will depend on the health and effectiveness of currently injured winger Evander Kane. The big winger last played June 10, 2024. That alone would disqualify an average player from postseason consideration, but Kane’s game is ideally suited to this time of year.
The current depth chart, with McDavid and Draisaitl out of the lineup, consists of various centre/wingers.
During periods when the entire roster is healthy, Zach Hyman, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Vasily Podkolzin, Jeff Skinner and Max Jones can be found on the portside.
Newly acquired Trent Frederic, who played his first game with the Oilers on the weekend, is also capable on left wing.
If the depth chart at centre runs according to plan (McDavid, Draisaitl, Nugent-Hopkins, Henrique), fans should see plenty of Kane on the McDavid line.
Podkolzin has been a consistent partner for Draisaitl all year, but the coaching staff might try Frederic instead. He has a better scoring touch and is more rambunctious.
Nugent-Hopkins at centre on the third line would suggest Podkolzin, or even Hyman if the coaching staff has decided to pair up McDavid and Draisaitl.
The big question on left wing surrounds who sits? If Kane is healthy, it’s possible the depth chart goes Kane, Frederic, Podkolzin and Mattias Janmark.
Bottom line: Based on recent performances, it would seem that Skinner being a healthy scratch is ridiculous. However, based on usage all year, the impending return of Kane, combined with the addition of Frederic, means Skinner and Jones are strong candidates for the press box.
Right wing
Hyman is likely to patrol the top line, with McDavid and one of several qualified wingers. If Kane is on the left side, the trio may be more prone to allowing goals. If Nugent-Hopkins moves over from centre, the line will score less, allow fewer goals and deliver a net positive in goal share at five-on-five.
One encouraging item on right wing is the recent play of Arvidsson. His emergence as the player Edmonton thought it had signed has saved the day at this position. Arvidsson has been averaging 1.83 goals per 60 since March 15 (10 games). That kind of production suggests he’s an appropriate player for the Draisaitl line.
