Why the Massive Gap Between Texas and Oklahoma in the Preseason Polls Doesn’t Reflect the Reality of the Big 12 Race
The preseason college football polls are out, and while they are always a source of debate and speculation, the noticeable gap between the Texas Longhorns and the Oklahoma Sooners in the rankings has raised more than a few eyebrows. Texas, coming off an impressive College Football Playoff run and a Big 12 title, is widely considered a national title contender, while Oklahoma is viewed as a team in transition. But is the chasm between the two really as wide as the polls suggest? Or is this just another case of preseason narratives outweighing on-field realities?
Texas enters the 2025 season with sky-high expectations, and to be fair, much of that is deserved. Steve Sarkisian has rebuilt the program with elite recruiting, development, and a system that finally looks like it belongs among the national elite. The Longhorns’ performance last season validated the hype that had been bubbling under the surface for years. Quinn Ewers led a high-powered offense that could score from anywhere on the field, and the defense finally found its stride down the stretch. Their upset win over Alabama in Tuscaloosa last season was a signature moment, and their narrow semifinal loss to Michigan further legitimized them as a contender. With Ewers returning for another year and surrounded by a stacked receiver room and a reloaded offensive line, Texas looks formidable on paper.
But as we’ve seen time and again, what looks good in August doesn’t always play out that way by November. Texas has not historically handled success well. The Longhorns have not posted back-to-back seasons with double-digit wins since the Mack Brown era. Injuries, inconsistency, and internal pressure have often derailed seasons where Texas started in the top 10. The hype machine in Austin is always operating at full capacity, and while Sarkisian deserves credit for breaking the cycle, it’s still worth questioning whether Texas can repeat last season’s success, especially now that they’ll no longer be hunting the top — they are the top.
Meanwhile, Oklahoma is being treated like a program in limbo, but that’s a misread of both the current roster and the long-term outlook under Brent Venables. Yes, 2024 was a disappointment by Oklahoma standards. The Sooners dropped games they shouldn’t have and never looked fully in sync on either side of the ball. But it’s easy to forget that Oklahoma was a top-10 team for the first half of the season and beat Texas head-to-head in the Red River Rivalry. That wasn’t a fluke. Dillon Gabriel and the Sooners’ offense showed resilience and explosiveness when healthy, and the defense made strides in Year 2 under Venables. The collapse in the second half of the season had more to do with depth and injuries than systemic flaws.
With Gabriel gone, Oklahoma turns to Jackson Arnold, a former five-star prospect and one of the most hyped quarterbacks to come through Norman since Caleb Williams. Arnold got valuable experience last year and now takes over a system that’s been fully tailored to his strengths. The wide receiver room might lack a true WR1, but it’s deep and fast. The running back position is strong, and the offensive line has continuity. On defense, Oklahoma has quietly built a foundation that’s much closer to Venables’ Clemson blueprint than many realize. The additions through the transfer portal, along with homegrown development, should make this one of the better defenses in the SEC — and yes, that includes teams like LSU and Ole Miss.
The SEC angle is important here. Both Texas and Oklahoma make their debut in the league this fall, and the national media has largely framed it as Texas being the more SEC-ready program. That’s fair in the sense that Texas is more physical at the line of scrimmage and has recruited like a top-five team over the past three years. But Oklahoma has a far better track record of adapting to new competitive challenges. Remember, this is a program that dominated the Big 12 for nearly two decades, cycling through coaches and quarterbacks while still maintaining a baseline of excellence. Texas, on the other hand, has only recently returned to relevance. It’s possible that Oklahoma’s transition to the SEC won’t be as dramatic as many think, especially with a manageable early schedule and a defense that might finally be capable of winning ugly games.
Preseason polls are notorious for overreacting to last season’s results. Voters see a College Football Playoff appearance and a Big 12 title and naturally assume a team like Texas will keep climbing. Conversely, a team that ended the season with losses and some instability — like Oklahoma — gets pushed down. But this ignores how small the margins often are in college football. Texas beat Kansas State and TCU by one score. Oklahoma lost to Oklahoma State and Kansas by one score. Flip a few plays, and the narratives change entirely. The polls might suggest that Texas is a top-three team and Oklahoma is barely in the top 20, but the gap on the field is likely much closer.
It’s also worth noting how both programs recruit. Texas is recruiting at a Georgia- or Alabama-like level right now, and that has to be respected. But Oklahoma is not that far behind. The Sooners are consistently landing top-10 classes and supplementing them with elite transfers. The development under Venables is already ahead of where it was in the final years under Lincoln Riley. If the Sooners can stay healthy and Arnold lives up to even 80% of his potential, this is a team that could not only win 10 games but push for a Playoff spot in a 12-team format.
There’s also the intangible factor. Oklahoma, for the first time in years, is the hunter rather than the hunted. That’s a role they’ve played well in the past. In 2000, they came out of nowhere to win a national title. In 2015, after being written off following a mediocre 2014 season, they made the Playoff. When Oklahoma has something to prove, they tend to punch above their weight. Texas, on the other hand, has often struggled when expectations are sky high. This season will test whether that pattern is finally behind them.
Of course, none of this is to say that Texas doesn’t deserve to be ranked higher. They do. But the current gap between them and Oklahoma — which in some polls spans 15 to 18 spots — is excessive. Both teams are entering uncharted waters in the SEC. Both have question marks at key positions. Both have new challenges to navigate in unfamiliar territory. It’s likely that one or both will stumble at some point. But it’s also likely that the difference between them won’t be as wide as the preseason polls would have you believe.
We’ve seen this movie before. Preseason favorites rarely go wire to wire. Injuries, upsets, and the unpredictable nature of college football always shake things up by October. Oklahoma is flying under the radar for the first time in a long time, and that might be exactly where they want to be. Texas, meanwhile, is carrying the weight of expectations into a league that devours hype for breakfast.
The true verdict will come on the field. But if history is any indication, the preseason poll gap between Texas and Oklahoma will look a lot different by season’s end.
