The 2026 NCAA Tournament is the unexpected favorite, according to updated national championship odds.

The 2026 NCAA Tournament is shaping up to be one of the most anticipated events in recent memory, with early championship odds revealing some surprising favorites. As the 2025 NCAA Tournament has just wrapped up, basketball fans and analysts alike are already looking ahead, projecting which teams will rise to the top in 2026. In this article, we will explore the updated national championship odds, the teams that have emerged as unexpected favorites, and the factors that contribute to the volatility of these early predictions.

The Emerging Favorites for the 2026 NCAA Tournament

As is often the case in college basketball, early national championship predictions are as much about potential as they are about past performance. In the case of the 2026 NCAA Tournament, some programs are already being pegged as contenders, even though the season has not yet begun. Among these, one name stands out as the early favorite: the Duke Blue Devils.

Duke Blue Devils: The Early Front-Runners

Duke University is no stranger to being a favorite to win the national championship. The Blue Devils are widely regarded as one of the top programs in NCAA history, and their early odds for the 2026 season have confirmed their status as the favorites. According to betting platforms like BetRivers, FanDuel, and DraftKings, Duke has opened as the top contender for the 2026 national title with +1000 odds.

The Blue Devils’ emergence as the early favorite can be attributed to several factors, most notably their strong recruiting class. Although the team will lose freshman star Cooper Flagg to the NBA Draft, Duke has an impressive incoming class, including the highly-touted Boozer twins, Cameron and Cayden. These two standouts, both of whom are ranked among the top prospects in the 2025 recruiting class, will provide a solid foundation for the program in the 2026 season. Coach Jon Scheyer’s ability to continue attracting top talent to Durham has kept Duke in the championship conversation year after year, and the 2026 season is shaping up to be no different.

Beyond their incoming recruits, Duke also boasts a strong returning core. Key players from the 2025 roster, including point guard Tyrese Proctor and forward Kyle Filipowski, will provide valuable leadership and experience. The combination of seasoned players and incoming talent gives Duke a balanced roster capable of competing at the highest level.

Houston Cougars: A Close Contender

While Duke stands as the favorite, the Houston Cougars are not far behind. Houston has consistently been one of the most dominant programs in college basketball in recent years, and their 2025 performance, which saw them narrowly lose to Florida in the national championship game, has solidified their place among the 2026 favorites.

With +1200 odds to win the 2026 national championship, Houston enters the new season with a chip on its shoulder. The Cougars will return a strong core of players, including star guard Emanuel Sharp and versatile forward Joseph Tugler. These two key pieces will anchor Houston’s defense-first approach, which has been the hallmark of their recent success. Additionally, Houston has bolstered its roster with a solid incoming recruiting class, ensuring that the team remains competitive at the national level.

Head coach Kelvin Sampson has built a program that is known for its tough, physical style of play, and that will likely continue to be the team’s identity in 2026. While they may not have the same level of star power as Duke, Houston’s well-rounded roster and unrelenting defense make them a dangerous opponent for any team in the tournament.

Louisville Cardinals: A Dark Horse

One of the more surprising teams to emerge as a contender for the 2026 national championship is the Louisville Cardinals. Despite a relatively quiet 2025 season, Louisville has risen to +1400 odds to win the national title in 2026. The Cardinals’ success in the coming season will largely depend on their ability to capitalize on their strong recruiting class.

Louisville has brought in a number of talented freshmen, including five-star forward Jaden Ivey and four-star guard Malik Ransom. These players, along with a solid group of returning veterans, could give Louisville the boost they need to contend for a national championship. Head coach Kenny Payne, who took over the program in 2024, has already begun to make his mark with a revamped roster, and the 2026 season could be the one where Louisville finally returns to its championship-winning ways.

The Cardinals’ path to the national title will not be easy, as they will face stiff competition in the ACC and beyond. However, their combination of youth and experience makes them an intriguing team to watch in the 2026 season.

Purdue Boilermakers: Consistency and Depth

Purdue has long been one of the most consistent programs in college basketball, and their early odds for the 2026 season reflect that consistency. With +1400 odds to win the national championship, the Boilermakers are once again a formidable contender.

Purdue’s success in 2025, where they made a deep run in the NCAA Tournament, is a testament to their well-balanced roster. The Boilermakers will return a number of key players, including All-Big Ten center Zach Edey and forward Mason Gillis. Additionally, Purdue has secured a solid group of incoming recruits, ensuring that the team will remain competitive in 2026.

What sets Purdue apart from other contenders is their depth. The Boilermakers have a roster full of skilled players at every position, and their balanced attack allows them to compete with any team in the country. Whether it’s their powerful frontcourt or their sharpshooting guards, Purdue has the tools to make another deep run in the tournament.

Kansas Jayhawks: Always a Threat

The Kansas Jayhawks, with +1600 odds to win the 2026 national championship, are another team that should never be counted out of the title race. Kansas has been one of the most successful programs in NCAA history, and their 2025 performance, which saw them reach the Elite Eight, only reinforced their status as a perennial contender.

The Jayhawks will return several key players, including star guard Gradey Dick and versatile forward Jalen Wilson. Additionally, Kansas has once again brought in a top-tier recruiting class, ensuring that the team remains among the elite programs in college basketball.

Head coach Bill Self has built a program that is known for its high-powered offense and stingy defense, and the 2026 season should be no different. With a mix of experienced veterans and talented newcomers, Kansas will be a force to be reckoned with in the coming season.

Other Teams to Watch

While Duke, Houston, Louisville, Purdue, and Kansas are the most prominent contenders for the 2026 national championship, there are several other teams that could make a deep run in the tournament.

• Kentucky Wildcats: With +1600 odds, Kentucky is always a contender, thanks to their elite recruiting and talented roster. The Wildcats have secured some top recruits for the 2026 season, including 5-star guard Jasper Johnson and 4-star forward Malachi Moreno.
• Arkansas Razorbacks: At +1800 odds, Arkansas is a team on the rise. The Razorbacks have a mix of veteran players and exciting newcomers, which makes them a dangerous team to face in the tournament.
• UConn Huskies: Despite losing some key players to the NBA Draft, UConn remains a major threat in college basketball. The Huskies have several talented recruits coming in, including Braylon Mulliins and Silas Demary Jr., which should keep them competitive in 2026.
• Florida Gators: The defending champions, with 20/1 odds, will be looking to repeat their success in the 2026 season. However, they will need to replace the scoring of Walter Clayton Jr., who is likely headed to the NBA.

The Volatility of Early National Championship Odds

It is important to remember that these early national championship odds are speculative at best. Many factors, such as player departures, injuries, and the emergence of surprise teams, can significantly alter the landscape of college basketball as the season progresses. While Duke and Houston are currently the favorites, other programs may rise to prominence as the season unfolds.

Additionally, the unpredictable nature of the NCAA Tournament makes it difficult to predict the outcome with certainty. While these odds provide an early snapshot of the teams expected to contend, the actual championship race is bound to be full of surprises.

As the 2026 NCAA Tournament draws nearer, basketball fans are already buzzing with excitement about the upcoming season. Duke has emerged as the early favorite, with Houston and several other programs close behind. While the season is still months away, these early predictions provide a glimpse into what could be an unforgettable tournament.

With so many talented teams vying for the title, the 2026 NCAA Tournament promises to be one of the most competitive and unpredictable in recent memory. Whether it’s Duke’s star-studded recruiting class, Houston’s stifling defense, or a surprise dark horse like Louisville or Purdue, the road to the national championship is sure to be full of twists and turns. As always, fans can expect the unexpected when March Madness arrives.