College basketball picks: Expert selects best bet, value play, team to avoid for ACC conference tournament
College basketball expert Thomas Casale examines the ACC conference tournament and makes his predictions for how the bracket will play out
The ACC has been the Duke Blue Devils and everyone else this season. Duke rolled through the conference in the regular season, losing just once to rival North Carolina by three points. Since that loss, the Blue Devils have won seven straight ACC games by an average of 25.7 points.
Can anyone upset the mighty Blue Devils in the ACC tournament? The oddsmakers say no. Duke is -330 to to emerge as the final team standing, making the Blue Devils the largest favorite in the major conference tournaments.
ACC conference tournament odds (via FanDuel)
- Duke (-330)
- Virginia (+700)
- Louisville (+1300)
- Miami (+1700)
- North Carolina (+2500)
- Clemson (+3000)
- NC State (+4500)
- SMU (+12500)
- Florida State (+30000)
- Stanford (+30000)
- Wake Forest (+30000)
- Virginia Tech (+30000)
- California (+30000)
- Syracuse (+30000)
- Pittsburgh (+30000)
Best bet: Duke (-330)
Normally, I wouldn’t recommend backing a -330 favorite in a major conference tournament because anything can happen in a one-and-done setting. However, it’s hard to pick anyone other than Duke winning the ACC.
The Blue Devils rank first in both offensive and defensive efficiency in ACC play. They are No. 1 in offensive rebounding, two-point field goal percentage, and creating turnovers. Duke also has the ACC’s best player in Cameron Boozer.
If you look at the other top contenders in the ACC, they simply don’t match up well with the Blue Devils. Duke beat Louisville twice by a combined 42 points and blasted Virginia by 26. Want to take a shot on NC State? The Blue Devils rolled them by 29 on the road last week.
There are some conferences where it makes sense to fade the favorite. The ACC isn’t one of them.
Best value: Miami (+1700)
If you are going to bet a team besides Duke in the ACC, the only one I would look at is Miami for a couple of reasons. The obvious one is the Hurricanes aren’t in Duke’s bracket, so they wouldn’t face the Blue Devils until the final. The other reason is Miami’s odds are big enough at +1700 that you will have an opportunity to hedge and still lock in some money.
Miami is a team that plays better than the metrics suggest. The Hurricanes are in the top 35 in offensive and defensive efficiency, although their talent doesn’t jump off the page. Head coach Jai Lucas did a great job of using the transfer portal to assemble a group that meshes well together.
The one thing Miami does exceptionally well is rebound. The Hurricanes rank second in the ACC in offensive rebounding behind Duke and first in defensive rebounding. That’s important because the Blue Devils typically kill opponents on the boards. If Miami can slow down the game and limit Duke’s second chance opportunities, they might be able to keep the game close and steal it at the end if the two meet in the finals.
Duke and Miami didn’t play in the regular season, so we don’t know how they match up against each other. And while I don’t believe any team in the ACC will beat the Blue Devils, I give Miami the best chance of pulling an upset.
