Duke basketball vs St. John’s prediction, pick for 2026 NCAA Tournament Sweet 16
Duke basketball will face St. John’s in the Sweet 16 of the 2026 Men’s NCAA Tournament on Friday, March 27.
The East’s top-seeded Blue Devils (34-2) and head coach Jon Scheyer will face off against the 5-seeded Red Storm (30-6) and head coach Rick Pitino at 7:10 p.m. ET (CBS) from Capital One Arena in Washington, D.C.
It will be Duke’s second game at the venue this season, taking down then-No. 1 seeded Michigan at Capital One Arena on Saturday, Feb. 21. St. John’s is making its first Sweet 16 appearance since 1999.
Duke defeated No. 9 seed TCU 81-58 in the Round of 32 to advance to the Sweet 16. St. John’s defeated No. 4 Kansas 67-65 behind a Dylan Darling buzzer beater.
Here are some things to know and a score prediction for Duke basketball vs. St. John’s in the Sweet 16:
Cameron Boozer vs Zuby Ejiofor, defensive battle
Both teams have their conference’s respective Player of the Year: Cameron Boozer (ACC) and Zuby Ejiofor (Big East). Boozer leads Duke with 22.4 points, 10.3 rebounds and 4.2 assists per game while Ejiofor leads St. John’s with 16.3 points, 7.3 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 2.2 blocks per game. Ejiofor is also the Big East’s Defensive Player of the Year, while Duke’s Maliq Brown earned the honor in the ACC. Brown leads Duke with 1.8 blocks per game.
Looking at KenPom, Duke’s defensive ranks No. 1 overall in adjusted efficiency, while St. John’s is No. 8. The Blue Devils are holding opponents to 63.1 points per game (3rd, NCAA) and the Red Storm 69.4 (58th, NCAA). The Johnnies have held nine of their last 10 opponents to lower than 70 points while Duke has allowed just three of its last 21 opponents to reach that mark.
Duke needs to protect the ball
Duke is coming off a 17 turnover outing, its second highest turnover amount this season, in its second round meeting against TCU. Eleven of those came in the second half with five coming in the first 3-plus minutes, allowing TCU to temporarily regain a two-point lead over Duke. In total, TCU scored 20 points off turnovers, still not enough to take down the Blue Devils.
It was Duke’s 22nd game this season with 10 or more turnovers and only its fourth with 15 or more. It’s season-high 22 turnovers came against Lipscomb on Dec. 16.
St. John’s forced 16 Kansas turnovers, while only turning it over eight times, for 18 points on Sunday night. The Johnnies full court press disrupted Kansas’ in-bounding ability, resulting in at least three Jayhawk turnovers on in-bound attempts. Duke will need to make sure to protect the ball against the Johnnies, who thrive off of defensive pressure and can capitalize off of it.
Rick Pitino history vs Duke basketball in NCAA Tournament
Both times Pitino has met up with Duke in the NCAA Tournament, at different school’s than St. John’s, has led to the winner of the game going on to win the NCAA title.
The first was when Duke faced Pitino at Kentucky in the 1992 Elite 8, with a Christian Laettner buzzer beater securing Duke a spot in the Final Four. The Blue Devils claimed the NCAA Tournament title that year, taking down Michigan 71-51. Pitino mentioned it in his postgame after Darling’s game-winner against Kansas.
“I’m hoping we can get Duker at the buzzer next to make up for that Christian Laettner shot,” he said.
Pitino then faced Duke in the 2013 Elite 8 while at Louisville. The Cardinals beat the Blue Devils 85-63, en route to taking down Michigan 82-76 for the NCAA title.
Duke vs St. John’s prediction
Duke 68, St. John’s 65: Expect a defensive battle in Washington, D.C. Duke’s defense and Cameron Boozer’s starpower are enough for the Blue Devils to hold off ZUby Ejiofor and the Red Storm.
